Rupee gains slightly as very-near-tenor dollar-rupee swap rates surge

The Indian rupee was slightly stronger on Monday as most regional currencies rose, while very-near-tenor dollar-rupee swap rates surged to unusually high levels amid panic bids, according to traders.

The rupee was at 85.4750 against the US dollar as of 11 a.m. IST, up from its close of 85.5325 in the previous session.

Very near-dated dollar-rupee swap rates surged, with traders pointing to year-end adjustments and tightened rupee liquidity, alongside the absence of intervention by the Reserve Bank of India to manage levels.

The tomorrow-next dollar-rupee swap rate soared to 14 paisa while the overnight swap rate jumped to 3 paisa in early trading on Monday.

 

The levels are "berserk ... and the bank who has paid (the swap) is prowling for more," a trader at a bank said, referring to the panic bids in the market.

Meanwhile, an uptick in Asian currencies helped the rupee on Monday. The currency had declined to its all-time low of 85.8075 last week, pressured by a spike in dollar demand while strong intervention by the Reserve Bank of India helped the rupee pare its losses.

Significant portfolio outflows coupled with India's slowing growth and widening trade deficit have kept the rupee under strain this quarter, Amit Pabari, managing director at FX advisory firm CR Forex said.

Foreign portfolio investors have sold over $10 billion of local stocks and bonds over this quarter on a net basis, according to stock depository data.

Pabari expects the rupee to trade in the 85.20-85.80 range in the near term.

Despite last week's slump, the rupee has fared better than most of its Asian peers over the December quarter. It is down 1.8 per cent on the quarter so far while its peers have weakened between 2.9 per cent and 11.2 per cent.