43,764 Indian migrants caught at US-Canada border: What's driving the rise?

Even before his inauguration as US President on January 20, 2025, Trump warned that Canada must resolve the border issue to avoid facing a 25 per cent tariff

The border between Canada and the United States has seen an increase in illegal immigration by Indian nationals into the US over the past few years. Data from the US Customs and Border Protection (USCBP) indicates that Indian nationals made up 22% of encounters at the northern border this year.

 

The USCBP's financial year, which runs from October to September, provides a breakdown of these figures. In 2022, 109,535 individuals attempted illegal crossings, with Indians accounting for nearly 16%. The number rose in 2023, with 189,402 attempted crossings, of which 30,010 involved Indian nationals. This year, the figures climbed further, with 43,764 Indians—close to 22% of the total 198,929—attempting illegal entry.

 

 

While these numbers are lower than those for migrants from Latin America and the Caribbean, Indian nationals constitute the largest group of extra-hemispheric migrants encountered at the US border in the past four years. However, the data only accounts for apprehensions, leaving the actual number of successful crossings unknown.

 

Trump's response to the border issue

 

Even before his inauguration as US President on January 20, 2025, Donald Trump warned that Canada must resolve the border issue to avoid facing a 25 per cent tariff. This concern was among the topics discussed during Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s unannounced visit to Mar-a-Lago in Florida on Friday, where he joined Trump for the US Thanksgiving. According to Canadian media, accompanying Trudeau was Canada’s Minister of Public Safety Dominic LeBlanc, who is in charge of the USCBP’s counterpart, the Canadian Border Services Agency, reports said.

 

In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Trudeau wrote, “Thanks for dinner last night, President Trump. I look forward to the work we can do together, again.”

 

Why are Indians taking this route?

 

"Every immigrant will have their own reason to undertake the perilous and disorienting journey to begin life anew in an unfamiliar country," said Russell A Stamets, Partner at Circle of Counsels.

 

"Remember this: the lowest per capita income in the US is $48,110, in the state of Mississippi. The net national income for India is about 2.4% of that (about $1,161) and Bihar has the lowest per capita income, about $708, or around 1.5% of the poorest state in the US. There will always be people looking to better their life situation," he added.

 

Canada’s visa accessibility

 

The Niskanen Center, a Washington DC-based think tank, attributed the rise to Canada's more accessible visa processes. In its September 2023 report, it noted that the average processing time for a Canadian visitor visa was 76 days, compared to nearly a year for a US appointment. The US-Canada border, being longer and less guarded than the US-Mexico border, is also seen as an easier option.

 

The Khalistan issue

 

The report also stressed the role of Punjab-based migrants. “Given that many recent irregular migrants from India are originating from Punjab, a predominantly Sikh state, and are increasingly crossing through Canada while being granted asylum at high rates in the US, this issue has the potential to become a point of trilateral contention in the future,” the report said.

 

The think tank added that Indian policymakers seem to perceive these migrations as economically motivated rather than politically driven.

 

Visa delays and green card backlogs

 

Asha Kiran Sharma, Partner at King Stubb & Kasiva, Advocates and Attorneys, linked the issue to visa and green card delays. “Many Indian nationals face long delays and restrictions in securing US visas or green cards, prompting them to explore alternative routes. Canada’s relatively accessible immigration policies make it a convenient transit point,” she told Business Standard.

 

Kiran Sharma also pointed out that economic challenges, such as unemployment or caste and religious discrimination, drive many to seek better opportunities abroad. “Some individuals risk debt to fund their migration,” she explained.

 

Biden's open-border policies and Canadian economy

 

Ajay Sharma, founder of Abhinav Immigration Services, pointed to the Biden administration's policies as a factor. “The key reason is that the borders were relatively open during the Biden administration, especially during the last year. This enabled much, cutting across nationalities and unofficial movements. Indians are not an exception!” he said.

 

He also cited Canada’s struggling economy as another factor. “The Canadian economy has not been doing very well for the last couple of years for various reasons: housing prices, high inflation, or global recession. So, a lesser number of opportunities meant that more temporary residents thought it wise to give it a try in the USA,” Ajay Sharma explained.

 

Organised smuggling networks

 

Human smuggling networks play a crucial role in this growing trend. “These networks exploit gaps in border surveillance and lure migrants with promises of safer routes,” Kiran Sharma said. Social media and word-of-mouth have popularised the northern border as a viable crossing point, she added.