Canada's immigration backlog hits over 1 million amid growing visa delays

Hoping for Canadian citizenship? The wait is getting longer. Canada faces a mounting immigration backlog, with 1,097,000 applications surpassing Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) service standards. As of September 30, the country has 2,450,600 applications under processing, covering citizenship, permanent residence, and temporary residence. "This backlog reflects a month-on-month increase of 1.73% from August," according to a November 6 update by IRCC on its portal.

 

Diplomacy and demand create complications

 

The immigration system backlog has intensified particularly for Indians, with the diplomatic dispute between Canada and India compounding processing delays for Indian applicants. Canada’s reduction in diplomatic staff in India has led to longer processing times for Indian visas. "The reduced number of diplomats means longer wait times for Indian applicants," said Ajay Sharma, founder of Abhinav Immigration Services. "It also affects families looking to visit loved ones or join students on special occasions."

 

 

Breakdown of backlog categories

 

The delay is expected to add around 17,500 final decisions to Canada’s global immigration backlog in the coming two months, though the government aims to stabilise processing times by early 2024.

 

Canada’s backlog spans across different categories, including citizenship, permanent residency, and temporary residency, each facing distinct pressures:

 

Citizenship applications: 38,100, showing a slight decrease of 1.29% from August.

Permanent residency applications: 305,200, a 1.46% increase.

Temporary residency applications: 753,700, up 2%, driven by seasonal demand and a rise in international student applications.

 

Temporary residency has shown the sharpest increase, with a 13.44% rise since July, partly due to the continued influx of applications from students and other temporary residents.

 

Applications within service standards

 

Despite the backlog, a substantial portion of applications are being processed within IRCC’s set standards. On September 30:

 

Citizenship: 184,800 processed within standards, down 3.04% from August.

Permanent residency: 510,800, an increase of 1.19%.

Temporary residency: 658,000, up by 1.68%.

 

Implications of prolonged processing times

 

Canada’s growing immigration backlog has broad consequences, affecting not only individual applicants but also industries reliant on foreign workers and family reunification efforts.

 

Impact on labour markets: Sectors like healthcare and tech face labour shortages as delayed work permits prevent skilled workers from entering the workforce.

Family separation stress: Extended wait times strain families awaiting reunification.

Financial and emotional toll on applicants: Many face uncertainty as they await citizenship or residency, impacting their financial planning and integration into Canadian society.

 

Future projections for immigration backlog

 

IRCC has outlined backlog projections for the upcoming months, factoring in demand fluctuations and seasonal processing spikes. Current efforts are focused on processing 80% of applications within service standards, although meeting this target remains challenging. Here’s a look at projected backlog data:

 

Citizenship: Expected to decrease to 16% by November-end.

Express Entry: Anticipated to rise to 20% in October.

Provincial Nominee Program: Steady at 20%.

Spousal sponsorship: Remains stable at 15%.

Temporary Resident Visas: Projected to decrease from 72% to 59% by November.

Study Permits: Expected to fall to 37% by November’s end.

Work Permits: Predicted to reduce to 44% by November, down from the current 47%.

 

Yearly backlog trends

 

Canada’s immigration backlog data has shown a fluctuating pattern over the past year:

 

September 30, 2024: 1,097,000 applications in backlog out of 2,450,600 under processing, a monthly increase of 1.73%.

August 31, 2024: 1,078,300 applications in backlog from 2,420,800 under processing, with a 7.57% monthly increase.

July 31, 2024: 1,002,400 applications in backlog, with total applications at 2,364,700, a monthly rise of 7.02%.

June 30, 2024: 936,600 applications in backlog and 2,292,400 under processing, increasing by 6.63%.

May 31, 2024: 878,400 applications in backlog from 2,220,000 total, showing a monthly decrease of 2.08%.

April 30, 2024: 897,100 applications in backlog, a slight monthly increase of 0.57%, with total applications at 2,220,200.

March 31, 2024: 892,000 applications in backlog out of 2,212,000, marking a 0.80% decrease month-on-month.

February 29, 2024: 899,150 applications in backlog from 2,126,200 under processing, with a 3.32% decline.

January 31, 2024: 930,000 applications in backlog out of 2,188,400 under processing, showing a monthly decrease of 2.05%.

December 31, 2023: 949,500 applications in backlog, with 2,221,100 total, increasing by 6.65%.

November 30, 2023: 890,300 applications in backlog out of 2,092,700, reflecting a 4.93% decline.

October 31, 2023: 936,500 applications in backlog, a slight increase of 0.86%, with total applications at 2,166,800.

September 30, 2023: 928,500 applications in backlog from 2,194,900, reflecting a 9.9% monthly increase.