US election 2024: Should Indian immigrants worry if Trump is reelected

The United States (US) will elect a new president in less than a week and immigration remains a issue, especially among immigrant communities like American Indians. Many fear the consequences of former president Donald Trump being reelected to office.

 

“Indians should fear a Trump presidency on many levels,” said Russell A Stamets, partner at Circle of Counsels, a Delhi-based law firm, about the Republican. “Trump has been vulgarly transparent in his contempt for immigrants, particularly non-white immigrants.”

 

Trump’s support for Project 2025, a Conservative group’s radical proposals on governance and immigration, has heightened concerns among diasporas.

 

In his campaign, Trump pledged to carry out what he calls the "largest" deportation operation in US history, targeting undocumented immigrants. Additionally, he plans to review refugee programmes and end birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants, raising anxieties within South Asian communities.

 

 

What Indian immigrants are worried about

 

The Indian-American community, with a population of over 5.4 million, plays a vital role in the US economy. According to pro-immigration advocacy groups, Trump's proposed changes – particularly the end of birthright citizenship – may face legal challenges, as it likely conflicts with the 14th Amendment of the US Constitution.

 

“A Trump presidency will complicate the economic and personal lives of many Indians, and this should be a major factor when considering whether to move to or deal with the United States,” Stamets added.

 

Harris' stance on immigration reform

 

Vice-President Kamala Harris, who is running as the Democratic presidential candidate, has focused on reforming the US immigration system, which she describes as "broken." In a recent rally, Harris addressed the need for legislative action to manage illegal immigration.

 

However, Trump has been quick to attack Harris’ record. At a rally this week, Trump accused her of allowing “migrant gangs and illegal alien criminals” into the US. “Her policy of importing migrant gangs is a crime against our country,” Trump claimed.

 

How legal immigration could be affected

 

Neera Tanden, President Joe Biden's domestic policy adviser, criticised groups advocating for restrictions on legal migration from Asian countries, in a statement to the press.

 

“There’s been a lot of focus on securing the border, but there’s a clear difference in how leaders view legal immigration,” Tanden explained. “Some want to restrict legal immigration, specifically from Asia, which is a pressing issue that isn’t discussed enough.”

 

 Tanden also highlighted Trump’s previous attempts to limit legal immigration from India during his first term, though he was blocked by opposition in Congress.

 

Why Trump might still appeal to some Indian immigrants

 

Despite concerns, not all view Trump as a threat to Indian immigrants. Ajay Sharma, founder of Abhinav Immigration Services, believes a Trump presidency could benefit Indians. “If Trump wins it’s good news for Indians,” Sharma told Business Standard. “Trump opposes illegal immigration, not immigration as a whole. Most Indians follow legal routes, so they shouldn’t be worried.”

 

Sharma pointed out that Trump previously voiced support for skilled immigration policies similar to those in Canada and Australia. He added, “The personal rapport between Mr Trump and Mr Modi is well known. This relationship could strengthen mobility agreements, which would be positive for Indians.”

 

Impact of US elections on Indian professionals

 

With the US being one of the top destinations for Indian students and professionals, changes in immigration policies could have a direct impact on the community. The US issued over 140,000 student visas to Indians in 2023, making India the largest source of international students in the country for three consecutive years.

 

Indian students, once employed in the US, earn significantly more than they would back home, according to a report by Intead, a student recruitment marketing provider, and job search platform F1 Hire.

 

While Indian professionals earn between Rs 300,000 and Rs 800,000 annually in India, their US counterparts bring in salaries close to Rs 1 crore in some cases, making the American Dream still very much alive for many.

 

Polls reveal divided opinions on immigration

 

A recent Pew Research survey shows stark differences between Trump and Harris supporters on immigration. While 88 per cent of Trump backers favour mass deportations, only 27 per cent of Harris voters agree with this policy.

 

Latanya, a student from Michigan, reflected the sentiment of many young voters. “Immigration is a major issue in this election. I think Harris is a much better choice than Trump,” she told news agency PTI.

 

The final days of the campaign are proving to be tight, with polls showing both candidates neck-and-neck in key swing states. According to a nationwide CNN poll, 47 per cent of likely voters are leaning towards Harris, with an equal 47 per cent backing Trump. Similarly, a New York Times poll conducted from October 20 to 23 showed both candidates tied at 48 per cent.

 

Swing states to watch in the final days

 

For either candidate to secure the presidency, they must win 270 of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs. The race is expected to hinge on seven key swing states: Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Nevada.

 

As the race heats up, one thing remains clear: immigration will continue to be a defining issue, especially for Indian Americans and the broader South Asian community.