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After a wet March, wheat growing northwest and central India might have a relatively drier April with temperatures rising from the second half of the month. However, they won’t be intense enough to cause heatwaves, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its latest seasonal forecast for the months of April to June.
This should bring some relief to millions of farmers across the country’s main wheat, mustard and chana growing belts which have been under the impact of an abnormally wet March that has damaged standing crops leading to a drop in the quality of produce.
Dry weather in the coming weeks could also boost Centre’s wheat procurement operations and push them closer to the targeted 34 million tonnes.
The operations have not got off to a strong start in some places due to damage to the standing crop. April to June are the peak months of wheat procurement in the country.
“In March, out of the 31 days, rainfall activity and thunderstorms were witnessed in 16-20 days across the country and there were 100 events of heavy rainfall activity in March 2023 which was just 13 in March 2022, 44 in March 2020 and 36 in March 2018,” IMD Director General DG Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said at a virtual press conference on Saturday.
Mohapatra accepted that the met department had underestimated the rainfall activity over east, central and north-west India in March 2023, while it was in line with the forecast made over South and North-East India.
“This is because as many as seven western disturbances along with induced circulation impacted the country during this period (March 2023), that started from March 1-3, 5-11, 13-16, 15-20, 19-22, 22-28 and 28-31 March,” Mohapatra said.
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Meanwhile, for April the met department said that across the country, normal to above normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except for some areas in peninsular, northeast, and northwest India where below normal maximum temperatures are likely.
“By April 3-4, another wet spell is expected over northwest India but it won’t be intense enough and thereafter, it will get over by April 5-7,” Mohapatra said.
When it comes to minimum temperatures, most parts of the country are likely to experience normal to below normal monthly minimum temperatures during April 2023, except for some areas in northwest, central and east India, where above normal minimum temperatures are expected.
For the April to June period, above normal heatwave days are likely to occur over most parts of central India, east India and northwest India during the hot weather season, April to June 2023.
"Usually, around 10-15 heat waves occur over North-West India in April-June, while the same number is 5-7 over East India, followed by 3-4 in Southern Peninsular India," Mohapatra said
For April alone, the IMD said above normal heatwave days are likely over many parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, East Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, north Chhattisgarh, western part of Maharashtra, Gujarat and some parts of West Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana during April 2023.
When it came to rainfall, the met forecast said that rainfall in April 2023 averaged over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal (88-112 per cent of LPA).
Region-wise, normal to above normal rainfall is expected over most parts of the northwest, central and peninsular India whereas below normal rainfall is likely over East and Northeast India and some areas over the west coast of India.
El Niño
On El Nino, IMD DG Mrutyunjay Mohapatra clearly said that the weather phenomenon is a strong possibility during the June to September period as predicted by most models.
However, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is another weather phenomenon that impacts the Indian monsoon, is expected to be positive which is good for the Indian monsoon.
“Therefore, it can’t be said with certainty at this point of time as to what exact impact El Nino will have on the Indian monsoon because in the past all El Nino years haven’t been bad monsoon years,” Mohapatra said.
He said the IMD will further detail the 2023 monsoon forecast by the middle of this month when more clarity will be available.
