Statsguru: Six charts explain India's contradictory monsoon forecasts

Research suggests rainfall distribution can be affected by global warming. Indeed, monsoon temperatures themselves have been rising in recent years

Contradictory monsoon forecasts have come in ahead of potentially the fifth straight year of normal or above normal rainfall for the country. Private agency Skymet suggested that the rains could be below normal in 2023. The India Meteorological Department (IMD), however, is of the view that normal rains are expected despite El Niño, a weather phenomenon which often results in weaker monsoon. The IMD defines a normal monsoon as one which delivers between 96 and 104 per cent of the 50-year average rainfall for the season. Rainfall has been 0.4-11.8 per cent higher than this average since 2019.