 "Bihar CM Nitish Kumar")
In December last year, the Janata Dal (United) National Council authorised Bihar chief minister and party president Nitish Kumar to take the lead in putting opposition parties together to challenge the governing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Despite meeting with several opposition leaders and attending various events that brought together different opposition groups, Kumar finally launched his plan on Wednesday, April 12.
The chief minister and his deputy, Tejashwi Yadav, met with Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi on Wednesday morning, and the chief minister told the press that talks with the Grand Old Party, which he hopes will anchor a potential opposition front, had reached the "final stage." He stated that the plan and process of bringing all parties together had begun.
Nitish stated that the plan is "bring as many opposition parties together against the BJP as possible" and "chart a common path" by focusing on mutual agreements rather than conflicts.
The meeting was noteworthy as it marked Congress' support for Kumar in facilitating talks between opposition parties. Recall Kumar's declaration at the CPI-ML-Liberation's national convention in Patna on February 18, 2023, that he was "waiting for the Congress's signal to work for uniting all the opposition parties" and that "the BJP would not cross 100 seats in 2024" if the Opposition were united.
Congress leader Salman Khurshid said he would advocate on Nitish's behalf in his party." Unsurprisingly, Khurshid was at the meeting in Kharge's house on Wednesday.
To be sure, many opposition parties have already banded together in many of the electorally significant states. The Mahagathbandhan in Bihar, which includes the Rashtriya Janata Dal, JD(U), Congress, Left parties, and several smaller parties, forms a strong front. Similarly, the coming together of Maha Vikas Aghadi by the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena, Congress, and the Nationalist Congress Party is also no mean feat. The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance appears to be quite strong in states such as Jharkhand and Tamil Nadu.
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Those outside such pre-election coalitions have also demonstrated a willingness to work together on shared goals. Nineteen political parties protested Rahul Gandhi's disqualification in New Delhi. Although some opposition parties have now taken a different route, most of them have joined forces to demand a Joint Parliamentary Committee inquiry into allegations of favouritism levelled against the Modi government following the US-based investment firm Hindenburg Research's accusation of financial fraud against the Adani Group.
No credible Opposition without Congress: Nitish
Nitish Kumar has made it a point not to send mixed signals against such a backdrop. He has stated often and unambiguously that no credible opposition front is possible without the Congress. Aware that the Congress remains the BJP's direct electoral rival in as many as 250 seats, he has directly or indirectly denounced the idea of a non-Congress opposition front advanced by leaders such as K Chandrashekhar Rao of the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) or Trinamool Congress (TMC)'s Mamata Banerjee, or even Samajwadi Party's Akhilesh Yadav.
At the same time, he has not severed links with any of these parties. Since September of last year, Kumar has met with a number of these politicians, including Arvind Kejriwal of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Akhilesh Yadav of the SP, Sitaram Yechury and D Raja of the Left, Om Prakash Chautala of the Indian National Lok Dal, and others.
Meanwhile, when confronted with accusations that his actions are motivated by his desire to become Prime Minister, Kumar has attempted to refute such claims.
My only goal or mission is to unite the Opposition, and I will work hard to achieve that goal. I have no personal desire to become prime minister, he stated earlier this year in January, one of many instances in recent months that he has emphasised his hope for a united opposition front.
Opposition unity: What next?
Now that Nitish Kumar has openly indicated that he will anchor the Opposition unity talks and has the support of Congress, his actual battle will be twofold.
To begin with, he will need to enlist the support of four major parties: AAP, Samajwadi Party, TMC, and BRS. These parties consider Congress, a political opponent in their respective states. If these parties' rivalry with the Congress causes a triangular - and sometimes four-cornered - contest, the BJP may gain a considerable electoral advantage.
So, if the AAP and Congress fight the Delhi elections together, the BJP will face a tough battle. Similarly, if the TMC, Congress, and Left fight together in Bengal, the BJP may struggle to win even a single seat. In Uttar Pradesh, the alliance of the Samajwadi Party and the Congress will ensure that the substantial 20 per cent vote of minorities is not divided. Similarly, the BRS and Congress working together can derail the BJP's rise in Telangana.
Secondly, Nitish – in order to forge a solid opposition front – would have to bring on board small state-level parties which have, more often than not, allied with the governing BJP in a matrix of a divided opposition. Akhilesh Yadav recognised the importance of these players and attempted to work with some of them. Some of these influential parties should be given credit for his party's improved performance in the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly votes compared to 2017.
The idea of such a "united voice" has already pushed Prime Minister Narendra Modi to dismiss it as the "coming together of the corrupt on one stage." Notably, Modi dismissed the Opposition's efforts to stage a joint demonstration against his regime at the BJP headquarters in Delhi.
Nitish Kumar's political journey
Nitish Kumar has shifted political allegiances over the years, spending most of his time with the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. But, since joining the Opposition in August 2022, he has shown a fresh ideological conviction.
Let's take a look at Nitish Kumar's political journey:
First term
Nitish became the chief minister of undivided Bihar on March 3, 2000. Nitish was the Samata Party's leader at the time and a Union minister in Vajpayee's government. He claimed 151 MLAs in the 324-member parliament, while his adversary and RJD president Lalu Yadav had eight more with 159. Nonetheless, Nitish claimed the chair and was sworn in with the backing of the BJP-led Centre. These efforts were futile, and Nitish resigned as CM before facing the floor test. His first and brief tenure ended on March 10, 2000.
Second term
In 2003, the Samata Party merged with Janata Dal-United to form JD(U). Nitish Kumar was re-elected as chief minister in November 2005 and completed his full five-year term while remaining loyal to his former alliance partner, the BJP. These were the years before PM Narendra Modi - Nitish's friend-turned-bête noire, rose to power. In the 2005 elections, the JD(U) and BJP won 143 seats, 21 more than the halfway point in the now-divided Bihar Assembly.
Third term
Nitish returned to power in 2010 with the BJP as an ally. He returned with 115 MLAs, while the BJP had 91 in the 243-member Assembly. However, this phrase would be riddled with difficulties. In 2014, the year the Modi-led BJP won a landslide victory in the general elections, Nitish's JD(U) was crushed, gaining only two of Bihar's 40 Lok Sabha seats. The saffron wave appeared to have shifted the state's dynamics. Nitish, still the CM at the time, resigned in May 2014, opening the door for Jitan Ram Manjhi to succeed him.
Fourth term
However, Nitish quickly changed his mind. He demanded his chair back from a reluctant Manjhi who refused to be unseated, calling his choice to step down "a mistake." Manjhi resigned before getting expelled from the party for anti-party activities. On November 20, 2015, Nitish Kumar was sworn in again with the support of RJD and Congress.
Fifth term
Ahead of the 2017 elections, Nitish allied with the Congress and RJD. The old adversaries had joined forces with the Congress to form the Mahagathbandhan or Grand Alliance.
The alliance's grand plan, however, was unable to achieve its lofty purpose because Nitish quit the alliance and joined hands with the BJP. The RJD was the largest party with 80 seats, while the JD(U) was relegated to 71 (down from 115 in 2010). The Mahagathbandhan held 178 of the 243 seats.
Sixth term
Corruption charges against the Yadav family and Tejashwi Yadav's name appearing in a money laundering case provided the ideal occasion for Nitish to call it quits while retaining the "moral high ground." He resigned and was again made the chief minister within 24 hours, with BJP backing. He served with the Mahagathbandhan from July 27, 2017, until November 16, 2020, before allying with the BJP again until the end of his term.
Seventh term
Despite his party's ongoing dwindling support, Nitish managed to keep his seat in 2020. The BJP allowed Nitish to lead the party despite the saffron party winning 74 seats, while JD(U) managed only 43. With 75 seats, the RJD remained the single-largest party. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) held a 125-member majority in the 243-member house.
However, tensions between the BJP and the JD(U) resurfaced when the bigger alliance partner allegedly attempted to downsize the JD(U). Things became more complicated when Chirag Paswan-led LJP fielded candidates only against JD(U) but not against the BJP in the 2020 elections.
According to reports, Nitish was convinced that the BJP was trying to demolish his party.
Eighth term
After five years, Nitish Kumar reversed his decision and re-joined the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), whom he had dumped in 2017 over allegations of corruption. This time, Kumar left the BJP and was elected leader of the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance). With the support of 164 MLAs from seven parties, he staked his claim before Bihar governor Phagu Chouhan to form the next government.
