Cyclone to form in next 24 hours over Arabian sea to affect in Kerala: IMD

According to IMD on Tuesday, the current depression over the southeast Arabian Sea is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm in the next 24 hours

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday, a depression over the southeast Arabian Sea south of Porbandar in Gujarat is likely to intensify and transform into a cyclonic storm preventing the monsoon from reaching India. 

The depression was seen over the southeast Arabian Sea, south of Porbandar in Gujarat. It is likely to move northwest and become a cyclonic storm with the name "Biparjoy".
 

Cyclone ‘Biparjoy’: Overview

At 5:30 am, the depression was approximately 920 kilometres west of Goa, 1,120 kilometres south of Mumbai, 1,160 kilometres south of Porbandar, and 1,520 kilometres south of Karachi, Pakistan. According to the report, the storm will intensify into a cyclonic storm over the east-central Arabian Sea and the adjacent southeast Arabian Sea within the next 24 hours.

 

On Monday, the IMD expected the arrangement of the low-pressure framework over the southeast Arabian Sea. The chance that the storm will affect the monsoon in the direction of the Kerala coast was also mentioned in the report. 

Monsoon in Kerala

This time, the monsoon's entry into Kerala has been delayed and the weather department is still unsure of the monsoon's arrival date. It has been reported that the private forecasting agency, Skymet Weather predicted a "meek and mild entry" for the monsoon onset over Kerala on June 8 or June 9.

With an error margin of three days, Skymet had predicted that the monsoon would arrive on June 7 in Kerala. The monsoon typically arrives over Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of approximately seven days. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted that the monsoon could arrive in Kerala by June 4 in the middle of May.

Kerala has experienced an earlier monsoon arrival over the past four years. On May 29, 2022, the southern state was hit by the southeast monsoon. It entered on June 3, 2021, and the monsoon entered on June 1, 2020, June 8, 2019, and May 29, 2018, respectively.

Cyclone & Rainfall in India 2023

Skymet predicted that the Indian monsoon could be affected by the cyclonic formation in the Arabian Sea. It said that the influence of the cyclonic formation in the Arabian Sea can make it hard for the monsoon stream to get to the coast and even have trouble penetrating beyond the Western Ghats.

Normal to below-average precipitation is expected in India's northwest. Normal rainfall will be between 94 and 106% of the long-term average of 87 centimetres in the east, northeast, central, and south peninsulas.