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India is likely to experience a normal southwest monsoon in 2024, according to Skymet, a private weather-forecasting agency. This prediction offers a glimmer of hope in the ongoing battle against inflation.
Monsoon rainfall between June and September is expected to be 102 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) of approximately 87 centimetres, with a model error of +/- 5 per cent, the weather forecaster said. Nationwide, cumulative monsoon rainfall between 96 and 104 per cent of the LPA is deemed “normal”.
Skymet’s forecast anticipates sufficient rainfall in south, west, and northwest India. The core monsoon rainfed zones of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh are also expected to receive ample rainfall.
The eastern states of Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, and West Bengal may experience a rainfall deficit during the peak monsoon months of July and August.
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Northeast India is likely to see less than normal rainfall during the first half of the season.
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The state-run India Meteorological Department (IMD) is slated to release its initial forecast for the 2024 southwest monsoon in the coming weeks. A good and normal monsoon should significantly contribute to curbing inflation and restoring growth in the agricultural sector, which is projected to have dipped to multi-year lows in 2023-24 due to a weak monsoon.
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“La Niña should aid in reviving agricultural growth in FY25 which will also be facilitated by a low base. A normal monsoon should help in replenishing reservoirs, many of which, particularly in southern India, have completely dried up. This, in turn, will further stimulate farming. However, we must monitor distribution and timeliness, as climate change can influence monsoon distribution,” S Mahendra Dev, former director and vice-chancellor of IGIDR, Mumbai, told Business Standard.
Reffering to weather patterns that may determine this year’s monsoon, Jatin Singh, managing director of Skymet, noted that El Niño is rapidly transitioning to La Niña, which typically results in stronger monsoon circulation. Historically, the shift from Super El Niño to strong La Niña has often yielded a decent monsoon. However, the monsoon season may commence with a risk of impairment due to the lingering effects of El Niño. The latter half of the season is expected to significantly outperform the initial phase.
In its earlier foreshadowing on January 12, 2024, Skymet had also assessed the 2024 monsoon to be “normal”.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), another factor influencing the southwest monsoon in India, is also projected to remain positive this year. “A preliminary forecast of a positive IOD this season will work in tandem with La Niña for improved monsoon prospects. Also, the rainfall distribution is expected to be diverse and equitable for the season as a whole,” Skymet stated.
Aditya Sesh, MD of Basiz Fund and member of the committee on the promotion of electronic negotiable warehouse receipts, said: “We are transitioning from food security to nutritional security, making the performance of the monsoon crucial. If the rains are normal and their volume is appropriate, the government will be able to meet its grain procurement target next year. Good rainfall will also help to curb food inflation, which is slowly rising, though it remains below global inflation.”
According to Skymet, there is a 50 per cent chance of the June cumulative national monsoon rainfall being normal and a 30 per cent chance of it being below normal or deficient. June typically receives around 16.53 centimetres of rainfall of total 87 centimetres. In July, Skymet predicts a 60 per cent chance of a normal southwest monsoon. July typically sees around 28 centimetres of rainfall.
In August, there is a 50 per cent chance of a normal southwest monsoon and a 20 per cent chance of it being above normal, according to Skymet. August typically receives 25.4 centimetres of rainfall. July and August are the months when India receives the most rainfall during the southwest monsoon.
In September, there is a 60 per cent chance of a normal southwest monsoon in 2024 and a 20 per cent chance of it being above normal. September typically receives around 16.7 centimetres of total monsoon rainfall.
