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Even as the country enters into a gruelling seven-phase poll to elect a new Parliament, the weather will not be benign as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday forecast extreme heat conditions over most parts of the country from April through June, with Central and Western India feeling the maximum impact.
Moreover, the number and frequency of heatwaves are also projected to be above normal this year over the next three months.
The Lok Sabha polls in India will take place in seven phases between April 19 and June 1. Outdoor activities, including campaigning and election rallies, are expected to increase manifold during this period.
“Ten to 20 days of heatwave are expected in different parts of the country, compared to a normal of four to eight days this year,” IMD Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told reporters in a briefing on Monday.
In Central and Northwest India, there could be two to eight days of heatwave conditions, compared to a normal of one to three days.
Mohapatra was joined by a host of representatives from the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Ministry of Agriculture, and Ministry of Jal Shakti in the multi-sectoral meeting to highlight the preparedness and steps taken to tackle the problem of heatwave this year.
Regarding ways to minimise the impact of heatwave on large election rallies and meetings, officials said that the NDMA has written to the Election Commission of India to issue necessary advisories to all stakeholders, including political parties, on preparations for holding large public meetings and rallies in view of the expected severe heat conditions in the next three months.
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“The health ministry has issued advisories to the states on how to handle mass gatherings of people in view of the unfortunate happenings of last year,” a senior official from the Ministry of Health said.
Last year, several people died due to heatstroke at a government function in Navi Mumbai, allegedly due to a lack of proper arrangements.
Meanwhile, on the forecasts, Mohapatra said that normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are likely over some parts of the Western Himalayan region, Northeastern states, and North Odisha.
Above-normal heatwave days are likely over most parts of the plains during this period. Gujarat, Central Maharashtra, North Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh (MP), Odisha, North Chhattisgarh, and Andhra Pradesh are likely to experience the worst impact of heatwaves, Mohapatra said.
Wheat
The standing wheat crop in most growing states might escape the wrath of the forthcoming extreme heatwave as harvesting will start in the next 15 days, and the crop is in the grain filling and maturing stage.
This is the stage when even if daytime temperatures cross 37 degrees Celsius, it will not impact the standing wheat crop.
“Only in MP, a heatwave is expected over the next week or so when the maximum temperature is expected to touch 42 degrees Celsius, but there too not much impact is seen as almost 90 per cent of the standing crop has been harvested. In Punjab, Haryana, and Western Uttar Pradesh where the crop is yet to be harvested, no heatwave is expected in the next 15-20 days,” Mohapatra said.
Water storage
Water levels in most major reservoirs across the country are at a satisfactory level except in Southern India, where they are a matter of concern.
According to data from the Central Water Commission, water levels in the 150-odd reservoirs monitored by the government as of March 28 were at 64.60 billion cubic metres, which is 84 per cent of last year’s level and 97 per cent of the 10-year average levels.
In Southern India, however, water storage levels are at 59 per cent of last year’s levels and 73 per cent of the 10-year average.
“Advisories have been issued to states with low storage levels to take necessary precautions,” Mohapatra said.
Power generation
Officials from the Ministry of Power said that advisories have been issued to all power generating stations to maintain full capacity during the next three months. While all maintenance and repairs have been either deferred or put off for now.
NTPC, etc., have been instructed to tie up for extra gas supplies while at the same time directed to maintain the distribution schedule.
Last year, India’s peak power demand in the summer months of April to June touched 240 megawatt (Mw) while this year it is expected to be around 270 Mw.
Health
The health ministry has issued advisories to all state health departments in view of the heatwave season of 2024 while separate letters have also gone out on hospital fires in summer months.
El Niño and monsoon
Mohapatra also said that the intense heatwaves this year in the summer months are mainly due to El Niño conditions prevailing over the world. By June, it will turn into a ‘neutral’ El Niño and by the middle of the monsoon season might even become La Niña conditions.
The Indian Ocean Dipole, another factor that influences the Indian monsoon, is expected to be positive from June onwards. Both conditions for now predict a ‘normal’ monsoon for India in 2024.
Heat exposure
The fear
Expected increase in outdoor activities during the 2024 general elections could heighten public vulnerability to heatwaves
Public Health Risk
With greater exposure, there’s elevated risk of heatwave-related health issues among the electorate and staff
States most prone to increased heatwave in next 3 months
Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, North Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, North Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Andhra
