India's July-August rainfall hits 30-year high, La Niña delayed to November

Rainfall recorded across India during July and August currently stands at 585 mm and is expected to surpass 595 mm, which would be approximately 11 per cent above the long-period average of 535.4 mm

The ongoing monsoon season, marked by consistent heavy rains over the past two months, is on track to be one of the wettest the country has experienced in three decades, reported The Times of India.

Rainfall recorded across India during July and August currently stands at 585 mm and is expected to surpass 595 mm within the next two days, which would be approximately 11 per cent above the long-period average of 535.4 mm.

The significant rainfall in August follows a 9 per cent surplus in July, bringing the average rainfall across India in August to 16 per cent above normal as of August 29. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had initially forecasted August rains to be within the normal range (94-106 per cent of the long-period average).

 

This bodes well for kharif crop sowing and soil moisture retention in the coming months.

La Niña’s arrival delayed to November

Citing veteran meteorologist and former secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, M Rajeevan, The Times of India noted that weather models had forecast a 10 to 14-day weak phase in August. However, substantial rainfall continued in northern and southern India, with only a slight decrease in central India. Rajeevan attributed the active monsoon to favourable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) conditions, which typically boost monsoon rainfall in India. The MJO also had a positive effect on the monsoon in July.

Meanwhile, forecasts from US agencies indicate that La Niña conditions, originally expected to emerge in August, may now arrive by November. La Niña, characterised by cooler ocean waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, typically supports stronger monsoon rains in India. According to Rajeevan, although ocean temperatures in the Pacific have not yet reached La Niña thresholds, the cooler-than-usual conditions have already positively impacted the monsoon.

Cyclone likely to form in Arabian Sea

In a rare meteorological event, a deep depression currently situated over Saurashtra and Kutch is expected to move into the Arabian Sea and intensify into a cyclone by Friday, according to the IMD. This would be the first cyclone to develop in the Arabian Sea in August since 1976. Although the storm is projected to move westward along the coasts of Pakistan and Iran, winds of up to 75 kmph are expected along the Gujarat coast from Thursday to Saturday. Additionally, a low-pressure system in the Bay of Bengal is likely to intensify into a depression and head towards north Andhra Pradesh-south Odisha within the next two days.

Gujarat's torrential rains claim 32 lives

In the last three days, Gujarat has seen 32 fatalities due to rain-related incidents, as heavy rainfall continues to batter the state. The severe flooding led IMD to issue a ‘red alert’ for Thursday, warning that the deep depression over Saurashtra and Kachchh could intensify further as it approaches the northeast Arabian Sea, potentially bringing even more rainfall.

Several districts in Saurashtra, including Devbhoomi Dwarka, Jamnagar, Rajkot, and Porbandar, experienced rainfall ranging from 50mm to 200mm on Wednesday. Bhanvad taluka in Devbhumi Dwarka recorded the highest rainfall in the state at 185mm during this period.

In response to the crisis, six army contingents have been deployed to assist the 14 teams of the National Disaster Response Force and 22 teams of the State Disaster Response Force in ongoing rescue and relief operations.

Apart from Gujarat, Delhi-NCR has also been grappling with persistent rainfall for the past two months, leading to widespread waterlogging. Many instances of flooding have been reported by media outlets, highlighting the region’s struggle with frequent rain.