 "Ramadan, Muslims")
Amidst a wave of media coverage and comments from political leaders regarding the growth of the Muslim population, the Population Foundation of India (PFI) has raised its concerns against what it deems as "misleading" and "inaccurate" reporting.
On Wednesday, several news outlets reported on a study titled "Share of Religious Minorities: A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015)" released by the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (PM-EAC) on the changes in the share of the population of religious minorities in 167 countries spanning over six decades.
Political changes are mere symptoms of deeper structural changes happening in societies, of which demographic change is an important component. Dr @ShamikaRavi, Abraham Jose & Apurv Mishra write in this latest EAC-PM Working Paper. 1/8 https://t.co/Er8nNO97dw pic.twitter.com/WjByrOJUwD
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The dominant headline across most publications emphasised a shift in India's demographic landscape, saying that the Muslim population's share increased from 9.84 per cent in 1950 to 14.09 per cent in 2015, marking a significant 43.15 per cent rise. In contrast, the share of India's Hindu population declined from 84.68 per cent to 78.06 per cent over the same period, a 7.82 per cent decrease.
Poonam Muttreja, Executive Director, PFI said, "The study's focus on changes in the share of majority and minority religious groups globally over a 65-year period should not be used to incite fear or discrimination against any community. The media's selective portrayal of data to highlight the increase in the Muslim population is an example of misrepresentation that ignores broader demographic trends."
PFI stressed that contrary to the alarmist rhetoric, the Census of India data reveals a nuanced picture of demographic trends. The Census shows that over the past three decades, the decadal growth rate among Muslims has been on a downward trajectory, outpacing that of Hindus. This decline highlights the convergence of fertility rates across religious communities, challenging the narrative of a Muslim population explosion.
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"Specifically, the decadal growth rate for Muslims decreased from 32.9 per cent in 1981-1991 to 24.6 per cent in 2001-2011. This decline is more pronounced than that of Hindus, whose growth rate fell from 22.7 per cent to 16.8 per cent over the same period. The census data is available from 1951 to 2011 and is quite similar to the data in this study, indicating that these numbers are not new," PFI said in a statement.
Furthermore, citing Census, the NGO said the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) among all religious groups has been steadily declining, reflecting broader socioeconomic factors rather than religious affiliation. PFI stated that states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu serve as prime examples, where access to education and healthcare correlates with lower fertility rates across religious lines.
Success stories from Muslim-majority countries like Bangladesh and Indonesia further debunk the myth of religious determinants in population growth. Instead, these examples highlight the pivotal role of education, economic development, and gender equity in shaping demographic outcomes.
Muttreja stresses that the most effective way to manage population growth is through investing in education, economic development, and equality. “Our analysis indicates that women's education is the most critical factor in reducing fertility rates. Therefore, interventions should focus on providing education and family planning services irrespective of religion,” she said.
