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Southern India has witnessed a significant demographic shift as its total fertility rate (TFR) falls below the replacement level. As a result, the chief ministers of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, N Chandrababu Naidu and M K Stalin, have publicly expressed concerns about the potential consequences of declining birth rates. Here’s a closer look at the state-wise TFR of the southern states and why they are concerned about population growth.
What is TFR?
The total fertility rate (TFR) is a measure used to estimate the average number of children a woman will have during her reproductive years, assuming current age-specific fertility patterns remain consistent throughout her life. A TFR of 2.1 is considered the replacement level, meaning a population can maintain its size across generations. Anything below this figure suggests a declining population in the long run, unless supplemented by immigration.
Globally, fertility rates have been steadily declining since the 1960s. According to World Bank data, in 1950, women had an average of five children. By 2021, that figure dropped to 2.2, and in 2022, the global TFR stood at 2.3. Projections suggest that this rate will fall to 1.8 by 2050 and could further decrease to 1.6 by 2100.
What is the fertility rate in India?
India’s TFR in 2022 was recorded at 2.01, dipping just below the replacement level, according to the World Bank's latest data. This marks a steady drop from 2.2 in 2015-16, in line with global trends.
TFR in South India
According to data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), several southern states now have TFRs significantly below the replacement level. Only three states—Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Jharkhand—still record TFRs above the 2.1 threshold, while the southern states are experiencing the opposite demographic trend.
Kerala, the first state to reach this threshold in 1988, now has a TFR of 1.8. Tamil Nadu followed in 1993, and Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka joined the ranks in 2001 and 2005, respectively. Presently, all these states report a TFR of 1.8 or below, with Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka recording even lower rates at 1.7.
Why are southern states worried?
The falling TFR in southern states has sparked concerns for two main reasons:
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Ageing population: A smaller working-age population means fewer people contributing to the economy through work, taxes, and social security. Meanwhile, the proportion of elderly people who require pensions and healthcare will rise, potentially placing a financial strain on both families and state resources. Challenges like this have already been observed in countries like Japan, China, and parts of Europe.
Delimitation of Lok Sabha seats: The delimitation of Lok Sabha seats, scheduled to take place after the 2031 Census, will be based on population figures. States with slower or declining population growth, such as those in southern India, may see their representation in Parliament reduced, potentially diminishing their political influence in national decision-making.
Concerns around delimitation of Lok Sabha seats
From sterilisation campaigns to educating women, South Indian states have implemented several successful family planning schemes over the years. This has significantly contributed to their population stabilisation. However, fears of the delimitation of Lok Sabha seats have raised concerns that these states may be disadvantaged.
Congress General Secretary Jairam Ramesh, in a post on X, said that southern states should not be "penalised" for their success in family planning.
The delimitation of parliamentary constituencies is set to use data from the first census after 2026.
Addressing a public gathering on Saturday, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Naidu suggested that his government was considering legislation to encourage families to have more children, reversing earlier policies aimed at curbing population growth.
On Monday, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Stalin said that couples should aim for “16 children,” referencing an old Tamil saying that listed children among life’s forms of wealth. He explained that the impending delimitation of parliamentary seats, based on population figures from the upcoming census, could reduce Tamil Nadu’s representation in the Lok Sabha, thus weakening the state’s political influence at the national level.
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