Warmer than normal winters likely, Nov 2024 among warmest since 1901: IMD

"In the core cold there is lower to higher probability of both higher maximum and minimum temperatures in the next three months," IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said

After a warm November, most parts of the country might experience ‘above-normal’ minimum temperatures during the winter months of December to February.

 

The maximum temperatures in this period could also be ‘above-normal’ except in the southern Peninsula, the state-run India Meteorological Department (IMD) said today.

 

A warmer than usual winters, particularly in North and Central parts of the country — largely comprising the cold core zone of Punjab, Haryana, UP, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, north Chhattisgarh, and North Odisha — could have an adverse impact on the standing rabi crops, especially wheat and pulses, depending on plant growth stage.

 

 

“In the core cold, there is lower to higher probability of both higher maximum and minimum temperatures in the next three months,” IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told reporters.

 

As per initial reports, sowing of rabi crops has started on a firm note this year, with acreage of most crops, including wheat, more than last year during the week ending December 2. 

 

However, mustard has been an aberration so far, where the area covered is trailing last year’s levels by almost 5.25 per cent. The government has said that as the sowing window is available for most crops, acreage might reach normal levels.

 

Meanwhile, the met department not only predicted a warmer winter but it also said that the number of cold waves could also be less than normal in the winter months over most parts of Northwest, Central, East and Northeast parts of the country.

 

“Usually, a cold wave lasts for five-six days, but if it is ‘below normal’, then it might be a cold wave of just two-four days,” Mohapatra said.

 

The met department declares a cold wave when certain climatological conditions are met over a fixed period of time.

 

Though the met department did not give any specific reason for the expected warm winter this year, it could be due to an unlikely delay in the onset of La Nina.

 

“The La Nina that was expected to set in between October and December has yet not come though. Most global and domestic models had, in fact, predicted its emergence,” Mohapatra said.

 

Coming to the November 2024 temperature, the weather office said the all-India average maximum temperature in November was the second highest since 1901, while the minimum temperature was seventh highest and the mean temperature was third highest. “This makes November 2024 among the warmest since 1901,” Mohapatra said.

 

In December, which is the first month of winter season, IMD said that minimum temperatures are also most likely to be above normal over most parts of the country.

 

The average maximum temperatures are likely to be above normal over most parts of the country, except some areas of Central India, where normal maximum temperatures are likely.

 

The cold wave days in December too are expected to be “below-normal” this year. Rains to be “above-normal”, the IMD said.