 "Jeera")
After a brief gap, prices of jeera (cumin seeds) are again on the boil, this time owing to fear of a more than expected drop in production in the main growing region of Rajasthan, along with some damage to the standing crop in Gujarat due to unseasonal rain in March.
The two states account for the bulk of the jeera production in the country. Commodity trackers are anticipating a shortfall in output this year.
Jeera prices had reached a record high in January this year, and then dropped around the middle of February on talks that the crop size might be bigger than expected. Thereafter prices again jumped since the middle of March. Even intra-day prices have been highly volatile.
Last year jeera prices had gained more than 90 per cent, and hit Rs 37,990 a quintal on January 16 this year. Then they corrected by around 22 per cent in a month to trade at around Rs 30,000 as traders said the earlier expected crop loss wasn’t big enough.
On Thursday, on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, jeera closed at Rs 41,680 per quintal, a jump of almost 23.3 per cent since March 21.
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After the rain, trade sources said daily jeera arrivals dwindled to 30,000-40,000 bags (1 bag = 50-55 kg). During the corresponding period last year, they were almost double of this.
Jeera is sown around October and the harvest starts in February. March is the month of peak arrivals.
“There is a very crowded buying market amid supply shortages again this year. After a recent assessment of crop loss due to unseasonal rains, jeera production this year is estimated to be 8-12 per cent lower than last year at 6.5 million bags,” a report by Origo Commodities said.
It said the standing jeera crop had been affected mainly in Rajasthan while losses in Gujarat were less severe.
“Initially before the rains the production this year was expected at 7.5 million bags. Last year’s production was also less at around 6.6 million bags as compared to 8-8.5 million bags in the 2021-22 crop year,” Origo’s assessment said.
Tarun Satsangi, AGM (commodity research), Origo Commodities, told Business Standard: “Many experts are assessing the crop size to be even lower at just 5 million bags, which has created a panic in the market. Prices might move up from here onwards and they might create a sort of bubble just like in cotton last year. Too high a price will erode demand.”
For farmers though, this wild fluctuation in prices in the last few months is doing more harm than good.
“The spike has led to adulteration in jeera. Some unscrupulous elements are mixing it with saunff and even imported seeds. On the whole, it seems jeera is going the guar gum way -- big gains for speculators but losses for farmers,” said Jeetendra Ahir, a farmer in Kutch district, Gujarat.
