After a good run these past few weeks, the markets seem to have paused to catch their breath. Unmesh Kulkarni, managing director and senior advisor at Julius Baer India, in an in-person chat with Puneet Wadhwa in Mumbai, says more clarity on market sentiment will emerge possibly around November/December, depending upon the state election calendar. Edited excerpts:
Are markets still fearing a global recession?
The probability of a recession in the US has now increased to about 50 per cent (10–20 per cent until January–February). It, however, remains to be seen whether it will be a soft or hard landing.