Asian shares fall, long-dated Treasuries prepare for worst week in a year

Asia shares fell on Friday as a strong dollar kept risk sentiment fragile, while longer-dated Treasury yields are heading for their biggest weekly rise this year as expectations for deep US rate cuts in 2025 recede. 

A top level meeting in Beijing pledged to increase debt and boost consumption but failed to boost Chinese equity markets.  Policymakers are girding for more trade tensions with the US as Donald Trump's return to power approaches. 

It has been a week of rate cuts from Switzerland, Canada and the European Central Bank, which had rate differentials working in the favour of the US dollar. 

 

The other main point of the week has been the rise in long-term treasury yields. Markets are still confident of a cut from the Federal Reserve next week but suspect it will sound cautious about next year. Futures imply little chance of a move in January, with just two more easings priced in to 3.8 per cent by end-2025. 

Thirty-year yields have jumped 22 basis points so far this week, their biggest since October 2023. 

In contrast, rates in Europe are seen at 1.75 per cent compared with 3 per cent currently, while those for Canada are expected to fall from 3.25 per cent to 2.7 per cent by then. 

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.5 per cent in Friday morning trade. 

Japan's Nikkei fell 1 per cent but is still on track for a weekly gain of 0.9 per cent. 

China's blue chips dropped 0.7 per cent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 1.2 per cent after the Central Economic Work Conference did not offer details on new stimulus measures. 

A subindex of Chinese property firms listed in Hong Kong slid 2.6 per cent. 

Jian Chang, chief China economist at Barclays, said the CEWC likely disappointed markets as a Dec 9 Politburo statement had raised hopes of more aggressive easing. 

"We maintain our view that incremental and reactive policy is more likely than pre-emptive and 'bazooka' policy," he said. 

On Wall Street, stocks closed lower overnight as some investors booked profits from the Nasdaq's relentless run to record highs. That said, Nasdaq futures rose 0.4 per cent in Asia. 

Data on US producer prices came out a little hotter than expected in November at 0.4 per cent but that was due to a 50 per cent jump in egg prices. The core reading was softer and led Goldman Sachs to lower their forecast for the Fed's prefered gauge of inflation - the core personal consumption expenditures price index due next week - to a monthly rise of 0.13 per cent. 

In the foreign exchange market, the dollar is on track for a weekly jump of 1 per cent against its peers. 

It gained 1.8 per cent on the Japanese yen this week as markets scaled back the chance of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan next week to just 22 per cent. Sources said the BOJ is leaning towards keeping rates steady.. 

The dollar also rose 1.6 per cent on the swiss franc to 0.8919, just within a whisker of a five-month high of 0.8957, after the Swiss National Bank surprised economists by cutting by 50 basis points. 

Treasuries were steady on Friday but headed for heavy weekly losses across the curve. The two-year yield rose 9 basis points to 4.1906 per cent, while the ten-year benchmark yield jumped 17 bps to 4.3219 per cent. 

Oil prices edged lower on Friday, but were set for decent weekly gains after the European Union agreed to new round of sanctions threatening Russian oil flows. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) eased 0.1 per cent to $69.95 a barrel and is up 4 per cent this week. 

Gold gained 2 per cent this week to $2,690.21 per ounce, still some distance from its record of $2,790. 

(Only the headline and picture of this report may have been reworked by the Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)