Bajaj Auto, Hero Moto seen testing key supports in 4 yrs; Is the fall over?

After rallying up to 88% in 2024, Bajaj Auto and Hero MotoCorp have declined up to 33% from their respective peaks in the last 3 months. Is it time to buy these stocks or wait for further fall?

Shares of two-wheeler manufacturers - Bajaj Auto and Hero MotoCorp had witnessed a strong rally on the stock exchanges in the calendar year 2024, until September. Bajaj Auto stock zoomed 88 per cent to hit a record high at Rs 12,774, while Hero MotoCorp share price surged 58.5 per cent to a high of Rs 6,246 in the 9th month of 2024.  Thereafter, share prices of both the leading two-wheeler makers in India have witnessed a downtrend. Bajaj Auto now trades 31.2 per cent lower when compared to its peak, while Hero MotoCorp has dropped 33 per cent from its peak.  In the process, both these stocks are now seen trading close to its crucial super trend line support on the monthly scale, a key trading indicator that Bajaj Auto has not violated since December 2020, and Hero MotoCorp since August 2020. The super trend line support for Bajaj Auto stands at Rs 8,270, while that of Hero MotoCorp at Rs 4,080.  Given this background, here are the key levels to track on Bajaj Auto and Hero MotoCorp for the likely trend ahead.  Bajaj Auto  Current Price: Rs 8,802  Upside Potential: 16.6%  Downside Risk: 11.8%  Support: Rs 8,270  Resistance: Rs 8,940; Rs 9,297; Rs 9,736; Rs 10,270  On the daily scale, Bajaj Auto stock is constantly grinding below its short-term - the 20-DMA (Daily Moving Average) since the breakdown on October 4, 2024. For the sentiment to revive at the counter, the stock will need to conquer multiple hurdles on its way up - starting with the 20-DMA at Rs 8,940, and super trend line on the daily scale at Rs 9,297. These shall be followed by the longer-term moving averages - the 200-DMA and the 100-DMA at Rs 9,736 and Rs 10,270, respectively.  Meanwhile, at present levels, Bajaj Auto stock trades roughly 6 per cent shy from its super trend line support; below which immediate support for the stock exists at Rs 7,770 - its 20-MMA (Monthly Moving Average). CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART  To summarize, given the present steep fall at the counter, short-term pull-backs cannot be ruled out. However, the overall bias for Bajaj Auto is likely to remain tepid as long as the stock trades below the above mentioned moving averages, with upside capped around Rs 10,270.    Hero MotoCorp  Current Price: Rs 4,175  Upside Potential: 15%  Downside Risk: 12.6%  Support: Rs 4,080; Rs 3,910  Resistance: Rs 4,450  Hero MotoCorp stock is seen trading in an oversold zone, with a RSI (Relative Strength Index) reading of around 21 levels. Other key momentum oscillators on the daily and weekly scale seem to be negative given the persistent fall at the counter.  At present, the stock is seen testing the 20-MMA support, which stands at Rs 4,168; immediately below which stands the super trend line support at Rs 4,080. Break and sustained trade below the same can trigger a fall towards the 100-WMA (Weekly Moving Average), which stands at Rs 3,910; below which a dip towards Rs 3,650 seems possible. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART  Given the oversold condition, a short-term bounce at the counter cannot be ruled. As such, the stock can bounce back towards its 20-DMA, which stands at Rs 4,450; above which a sharp spike towards Rs 4,800 levels seems likely.