Can the Sensex hit 125,000 in Samvat 2081? Here's what chart say

After surging up to 25% in Samvat 2080; the Sensex and the Nifty have cooled-off a bit in the last one month. Here's a technical outlook on the benchmarks and sectoral indices for Samvat 2081.

Despite the recent 8 per cent set-back to the BSE and the NSE equity benchmark indices, the Indian stock markets are well poised to end Samvat 2080 (the Hindu calendar) with attractive gains. For the records, as of October 25, the BSE Sensex was up 22.3 per cent while the NSE Nifty 50 had logged a 24.5 per cent gain in this Samvat year thus far.

 

The Muhurat trading session for the new calendar year - Samvat 2081 - is scheduled this week on Friday, November 01. The stock exchanges, the BSE and NSE, have notified the timing of a special one-hour trading session, from 6 PM - 7 PM on Friday to ring in Samvat 2081. The Muhurat trading session embodies a blend of cultural significance and financial opportunity. 

 

 

Back to markets, at present, technically, the Sensex and Nifty seems to be trading with a negative bias on the short-to-medium term scale. The long-term trend, however, remains bullish as both the indices are seen trading comfortably above their respective long-term moving averages.

 

Given the upbeat mood for equities in India and positive growth outlook; will the Indian stock market continue to shine in Samvat 2081?  What are the likely upside targets for the Sensex and the Nifty in Samvat 2081? Here's what the charts suggest for the key benchmark and sectoral indices:

 

BSE Sensex

Current Level: 80,200

Upside Potential: 27.2%

Support: 78,100; 75,900

Resistance: 86,000; 89,000; 91,550

 

The long-term bias for the BSE Sensex is likely to remain positive as long as the index holds above 75,900 levels; with interim support seen at 78,100 levels. On the upside, the BSE index will need to break and sustain above 81,750 levels to regain positive momentum.

 

The long-term chart suggests that in the base case scenario, the BSE Sensex can potentially rally to 94,050 levels in Samvat 2081; with interim resistance likely around the all-time high at 86,000-odd levels followed by 89,000 and 91,550 levels. Whereas, in the bull case scenario, the Sensex can hit the 102,000 levels in Samvat 2081; with interim resistance likely at 97,500 levels.

 

  NSE Nifty

Current Level: 24,181

Upside Potential: 22.6%

Support: 23,375; 21,570

Resistance: 27,000, 27,770

 

In spite of the recent weakness, the higher-highs and higher lows trend on the NSE Nifty 50 index monthly chart remains intact. The long-term chart shows that the Nifty had given a positive breakout in November 2020, and has since soared nearly 108 per cent or 12,539 points in the last four years. 

 

Tech chart shows that the long-term trend for the Nifty 50 index is likely to remain positive as long as the index holds above 21,570 levels. Having said that, in the near-term the Nifty runs the risk of testing its 200-DMA (Daily Moving Average), which stands at 23,375 levels, with interim support likely around 24,000 and 23,550. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

 

Meanwhile, the long-term chart suggests that the Nifty can potentially rally to 29,650 levels in Samvat 2081; with interim resistance seen at 27,000 and 27,770 levels. 

 

Nifty MidCap 150

Current Level: 20,600

Upside Potential: 29.2%

Support: 20,265; 17,550

Resistance: 23,000; 24,380

 

The Nifty MidCap 150 index, down 8 per cent this October, seems to be in the process of registering its biggest single-month fall since March 2020. At present, the Nifty MidCap index is seen quoting close to its crucial support at 20,265 levels. As long as this support is held, the index may look to consolidate and resume its uptrend. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

 

The long-term chart hints at a potential downside risk of 15 per cent from present levels, a likely downside target of 17,550 levels. However, in case of positive turnaround the Nifty MidCap index can potentially surge to 26,600 levels - implying an upside potential of over 29 per cent. Interim resistance for the index is expected around 23,000 and 24,380 levels. 

 

  Nifty SmallCap 250

Current Level: 16,960

Upside Potential: 33.3%

Support: 16,340

Resistance: 19,265; 20,540

 

The Nifty SmallCap 250 index is seen trading 3.7 per cent shy from its long-term (200-DMA at 16,340) on the daily chart. At present, the index seems to be maintaining its higher-high and higher-lows trend on the weekly and monthly chart. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART 

 

As and when the uptrend resumes, the Nifty SmallCap index can potentially rally to 22,600 in Samvat 2081; with interim resistance seen at 19,265 and 20,540 levels.

 

Bank Nifty

Current Level: 51,500

Upside Potential: 23.7%

Support: 49,200; 47,000

Resistance: 56,400; 59,200

 

The Bank Nifty had surged over 31 per cent in Samvat year 2080 as the index scaled a high of 54,467. At present levels, the index was down 5.5 per cent from its peak. The long-term chart suggests that the index can potentially surge to 63,700; with interim resistance seen at 56,400 and 59,200 levels. Support for Bank Nifty in Samvat 2081 can be expected around 49,200 and 47,000 levels. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

 

Nifty IT

Current Level: 42,200

Upside Potential: 19%

Support: 40,660; 37,900

Resistance: 47,050; 48,600

 

The Nifty IT index has been a relative outperformer in the recent market downturn. The index is seen treading along its higher-end of the Bollinger Bands on the monthly scale; and also holding above the medium-term moving averages.

 

As such, key support for the index stands at 40,660 and 37,900 levels. On the upside, the Nifty IT index can flare up to 50,200 levels, with interim resistance likely around 47,050 and 48,600 levels. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART 

 

  Nifty Auto

Current Level: 24,070

Upside Potential: 31.9%

Support: 23,327; 22,600; 20,350

Resistance: 26,300; 28,950

 

The Nifty Auto index has been one of the worst performers so far this month, down 11 per cent. The index is seen quoting close to its 200-DMA, which stands at 23,327; below which key support for the index stands 22,600 and 20,350 levels.

 

On the upside, the Nifty Auto index needs to break and sustain above 26,300 for the index to regain its positive momentum. On the upside, the index could spurt to 31,750 levels, with interim resistance likely around 28,950 levels. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART 

 

Nifty Metal

Current Level: 9,272

Upside Potential: 43.4%

Support: 9,000; 8,850; 8,700

Resistance: 10,300; 10,900; 11,800

 

The Nifty Metal index is seen testing its 200-DMA on the daily scale which stands around the 9,000-mark; below which near support for the index exists at 8,850 levels. On the long-term chart, the index has been making higher-highs and higher-lows on the monthly scale since October 2020. The long-term chart suggests that as long as the 8,700 level is protected, the index may resume its uptrend soon.

 

On the upside, the Nifty Metal index will need to break and sustain above 10,300 levels for gaining upside momentum. The index can potentially soar to 13,300 levels in Samvat 2081; with interim resistance likely around 10,900 and 11,800 levels. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

 

Conclusion:

 

Based on the existing chart patterns, the BSE Sensex in a bull case scenario can rally up to 102,00, while in the base case it can test 94,00 levels in the Samvat year 2081. Similarly, the NSE Nifty 50 index can surge to 29,650 levels in the bull case scenario.

 

The broader indices - the Nifty MidCap and SmallCap can potentially surge up to 33 per cent. Whereas, among sectoral indices - the Nifty Metal index can outperform the peers in Samvat 2081.