Dollar set for biggest daily jump since October as US bond yields rebound

The dollar rose on the first trading day of the year, supported by higher U.S. yields as attention turned to U.S. jobs data and European inflation numbers this week which may provide clues on central banks' next moves.

The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six counterparts, was last up 0.67% at 102.05, on track for its biggest daily percentage gain since October.

It fell 2% in 2023, snapping two years of gains due to investor expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut rates significantly this year while the economy remains resilient.

On the other side of the dollar's ascent was the euro which dipped 0.74% as traders digested data showing euro zone factory activity contracted in December for an 18th straight month and sterling, off 0.64% at $1.2657.

 

The dollar also climbed against the Japanese yen, rising 0.96% to 142.16 yen.

Underpinning the dollar's gains was a move higher in U.S. yields. The benchmark 10-year yield was last up 10 basis points at 3.963%. That would be its biggest daily increase in over three weeks, and comes after a 100 basis point drop in November and December.

Investors have a fairly busy week ahead with a slew of economic data including European inflation data and U.S. data on job openings and non-farm payrolls, which will help shape market expectations regarding monetary policy moves from the Fed and European Central Bank.

"Primary corporate issuance ($60 bn estimated in the US alone) could support this mean reversion in yields. Then FOMC minutes and payrolls will set the tone, and fine tune expectations for Jan and March FOMC meetings," said Kenneth Broux senior strategist FX and rates at Societe Generale.

Minutes from the most recent meeting of the Fed's rate setting Federal Open Market Committee in December are scheduled for release on Wednesday and will provide further insight into the central bankers' thinking.

Markets are now pricing in an 82% chance of interest rate cuts from the Fed to start from March, according to CME FedWatch tool, with over 150 basis points (bps) of easing anticipated this year.

Traders were also processing higher oil prices, with Brent up over 2%, on fears of potential disruption to Middle East supply after the latest attack on a container ship in the Red Sea. [O/R]

That, however, could not help currencies of oil exporting hold off the stronger greenback. The dollar climbed 0.4% on the Norwegian crown and 0.2% on the Canadian dollar while the Australian dollar dipped 0.33%.

The euro did dip around 0.4% on both the Aussie and the Loonie however.

The crypto world started the year with a bang, with bitcoin touching a 21-month peak of $45,532 on rising expectations that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will soon approve exchange-traded spot bitcoin funds.