 "NSE, national stock exchange, nifty50")
NIFTY
Bias: Positive
Put-Call Ratio (PCR): 1.14
Support: 18,770; 18,725
Resistance: 18,910; 18,920
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The Nifty so far in the June series has gained 2.7 per cent and is seen within striking distance of a record high. The overall mood has been cautiously optimistic despite concerns of a likely higher interest rate regime globally.
The NSE on Tuesday prepone the monthly expiry from June 29 (Thursday) to June 28 today on account of change in holiday schedule on the occasion of Bakri-Id.
According to Nuvama Research, the Nifty futures have seen up to 56 per cent rollovers on Expiry - 1 Day, slightly higher when compared with the last 3-month average rollovers at 55 per cent. Yesterday, the Nifty saw a strong up move in the latter half of the trading day, and the index closed above 18,800 levels.
Amid the sharp pullback, the Nifty 18,800 and the 18,700 Calls saw significant unwinding of positions as bears (Call writers) hurried to cover their shorts. On the other hand, the Nifty 18,750 and 18,700 Puts saw huge build-up of open interest (OI), implying that the bulls seem confident that that Nifty may sustain above these levels on expiry day.
"The Nifty moved up smartly following a doji formation on the daily chart. Additionally, the index found support at the 21EMA before moving higher. The RSI, on the lower timeframe, is in a bullish crossover. The short-term trend looks green from here, on the upside, the index might witness a rally towards 19000. On the lower end, support is placed at 18,700.", said Rupak De, Senior Technical analyst at LKP Securities in a note.
The highest OI among Nifty Calls stands at 18,900 Strike Price followed by 19,000 and 18,800. Based on the OI + premium calculation one can expect the Nifty to face resistance around 18,910 - 18,920 range. However, sustained trade above 18,920 could start worrying the bears, and could trigger a sharp short-covering rally to near about 19,000-mark.
Whereas, the highest OI among Nifty Puts stands at 18,700 Strike Price followed by 18,800. The OI + premium calculation suggests that, in the event of a dip, the Nifty is likely to get support around 18,770, and stronger support emerging around 18,725 levels.
Further, the overall Nifty Put Call Ratio (PCR) too stands above 1 at 1.14 suggesting that there are more open positions in Puts as against Calls.
Bank Nifty
Bias: Positive
Put-Call Ratio (PCR): 1.53
Support: 44,000; 43,900
Resistance: 44,300
The Bank Nifty has swung in the broad 43,500 - 45,000 range, and is up 1 per cent in the June series so far. However, despite the range-bound movement, bulls seem to be optimistic that a breakout on the upside seems imminent for the index, based on present PCR at 1.53. The high PCR shows that Put writers are confident of a limited downside on the index on the expiry day.
As the Bank Nifty rallied over a per cent in trades on Tuesday, the 43,800, 43,900, and 44,000 Puts saw aggressive writing; with the maximum jump in OI at the 44,000 Put. The 44,100 and 43,700 Puts too saw notable build-up in OI.
Based on the OI + premium calculation, in case of a dip, the Bank Nifty is likely to find considerable support in the 44,000 - 43,900 range.
"Bank Nifty closed above its 20-DEMA of 43,823 after closing below the same for the previous three trading sessions. The resistance for Bank Nifty is placed at 44,050 while the support is placed at 43,400. Option activity at 44,000 Strike will set the tone for Bank Nifty Intraday movement tomorrow.", said Ashwin Ramani, Derivatives & Technical Analyst, SAMCO Securities in a note.
On the other hand, the highest OI among Bank Nifty Calls is visible at 45,000 Strike Price followed by 44,500 and 44,000. There is a meaningful OI at 44,200 Strike as well, which suggests that the Bank Nifty could face some resistance around 44,300 levels.
However, in case, Bank Nifty trades and sustains consistently above the 44,300 level, a sharp rally towards the 44,500 rally cannot be ruled out.
