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F&O Insights for Monday, September 30, 2024: Amid the on-going stellar rally, the NSE Nifty 50 index seems on course to end higher for the fourth straight month. As of date, the Nifty 50 index has gained 3.7 per cent thus far in September. In the last four months, the NSE benchmark has zoomed over 16 per cent.
The recent gains on the Nifty 50 index are led by aggressive buying by foreign investors in the derivatives segment. The FIIs long-short ratio in index futures stood above 4:1 as of Friday. The Nifty October futures ended marginally higher on Friday even as the spot Nifty ended wee bit in red; as the premium soared to 166 points as against 92 points the day before.
Technically, the Nifty on a daily scale has formed a small red candle and on weekly scale index has formed a big green candle. Moreover, the Nifty on a weekly scale has managed to close above the breakout of the rising channel pattern, indicating strength. In the short term, as long as, Nifty holds above the breakout level of 26,000 a “buy on dips” strategy should be adopted. On the upside, 26,500 will be immediate short-term target for the index, said Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates in a note.
Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty futures slipped 0.6 per cent on September 27, while the Bank Nifty index declined 1 per cent. The premium for the October series more-than-doubled to 386 points from 174 points.
The Bank Nifty has formed a bearish Marubozo candle, indicating weakness. However, on the weekly scale, the index is still holding above the breakout point of a rounding bottom pattern, said the analyst from Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates.
Bank Nifty might face an immediate hurdle near the psychological level of 54,000 and 54,500. In the short term, Bank nifty may witness some consolidation or profit taking but any dip around 53,350 - 53,400 will offer fresh buying opportunity, said Hrishikesh Yedve.
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Key Insights from Nifty, Bank Nifty options data
The Nifty options market reflects a tug of war between the bulls and the bears, with a PCR (Put Call Ratio) reading of 1.05; implying an equal amount of open positions in Nifty Calls and Puts. Highest open interest (OI) is seen at 27,000 Nifty Call followed by 27,500. Active trading is seen at 26,200, 26,300 and 26,500 Strike Calls. The options OI and pricing data suggests likely resistance for the Nifty around 26,390 0 26,450 zone.
In case of Nifty Puts, highest OI is seen at 26,000 Strike followed by 26,200. Data hints at likely support a 26,100 and 25,950 levels on the Nifty 50 index.
In case of Bank Nifty, the PCR for the contracts expiring October 1 (Tuesday) stands at 0.68. The weekly expiry will take place tomorrow instead of Wednesday on account of Gandhi Jayanti Holiday.
Active trading in Bank Nifty Calls is visible from 54,000 - 54,500 Strikes. Options data suggests that the Bank Nifty may face stiff resistance in the 54,300 - 54,400 zone. On the other hand, based on the OI in Puts, Bank Nifty may seek support around 53,750 levels, below which test of 53,400 seems likely.
FII, DII trading activity in F&O - Here's all you need to know about who bought and who sold in the derivatives market on Friday.
As per data available from the NSE, FIIs net bought 25,056 contracts of index futures on September 27 for a consideration of Rs 1,727.56 crore. FIIs net bought 18,358 contracts of Nifty futures worth Rs 1,210.42 crore; and purchased 4,628 Bank Nifty futures and 2,207 contracts of MidCap Nifty futures.
Backed the aggressive buying, FIIs overall open interest (OI) in index futures jumped to 4.39:1; its highest point since July 09. This ratio implies that foreign investors now hold more than 4 long positions in index futures for every bet on the short side.
Meanwhile, retail investors' long-short ratio remains around 0.50; indicating presence of just 1 long position in index futures for every 2 bets on the short side.
Whereas, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) long-short ratio in index futures stands at 0.65; meaning 2 long positions for every 3 bets on the short side of trade.
Bullish & Bearish stocks
In early days of the October series, illiquid stocks such as Granules India and Colgate Palmolive have seen sizeable OI build-up on the long side on Friday. Among others, Aditya Birla Retail, BPCL, Chambal Fertilisers and Polycab India were the notable movers.
On the other hand, Birlasoft, Indian Energy Exchange (IEX), Bandhan Bank and City Union Bank were among the stocks that witnessed build-up of OI amid decline in stock price.
Stocks in F&O ban period on Monday
No stocks are placed under the F&O ban period for today.
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