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FIIs OI in index futures down 40% from peak; Volatility likely to rise

F&O cues for Oct 30: Nifty options reveals a neutral sentiment with Call and Put activity nearing parity, and the PCR rising to 0.93, said Dhupesh Dhameja of SAMCO Securities.

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Rex Cano Mumbai

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Futures & Options (F&O) Insights for Wednesday, October 30: The Nifty and Bank Nifty futures ended higher for the second straight day on Tuesday, with the benchmark NSE Nifty 50 now nearing the 24,500-mark.
 
On the daily charts, the Nifty has found buying interest from support zone of 78.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at 24,170 and started the next leg of up move. The up move is likely to continue towards 24,563 - 24,823 which are the Fibonacci extension targets, said Jatin Gedia – Technical Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.
 
Meanwhile, Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates cautions on the possibility of an increase in volatility. "The volatility index, INDIA VIX, rose by 1.57% to 14.52, indicating increased market volatility.", Hrishikesh said.
 
 
Key Insights from Nifty, Bank Nifty options data
 
The Nifty options reveals a neutral sentiment with Call and Put activity nearing parity. The put-call ratio (PCR) too has marginally increased from 0.91 to 0.93, maintaining a neutral stance, explains Dhupesh Dhameja, Technical Analyst at SAMCO Securities. 
 
Notable trading activity spans the 24,500 – 24,800 Call range and the 24,100 – 24,400 Put range, underscoring strong resistance created by call writers (Bears) between 24,500 and 25,000, while support consolidates within the 24,000 – 24,400 range, the analyst said.
 
Whereas in case of Bank Nifty, intense trading activity is observed in the 52,300 – 52,500 Call range and the 52,000 – 52,200 Put range, indicating that resistance has shifted to higher strikes between 52,300 and 52,500, while support has consolidated at the 51,900 – 52,200 range, the note from SAMCO Securities stated.
 
FII v/s Retail v/s Proprietary traders: Who is bullish / bearish?
 
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net buyers of index futures for the fifth straight day on Tuesday. FIIs net bought 1,924 contracts of index futures for Rs 294.39 crore.
 
The NSE data shows that FIIs net sold 8,431 contracts of Nifty futures worth Rs 517.58 crore; while net bought 10,661 contracts of Bank Nifty futures for Rs 830.44 crore.
 
The data shows that FIIs open interest (OI) in index futures declined by another 4.1 per cent to 4.59 lakh contracts. The FIIs OI in index futures has plunged by 39.4 per cent when compared to its peak of 7.58 lakh contract on September 24, 2024. 
 
FIIs OI in Nifty futures contracts dropped by 4.3 per cent, in Bank Nifty by 5.6 per cent, and a marginal 0.1 per cent in the case of MidCap Nifty futures.
 
Pursuant to which, the FIIs overall long-short ratio in index futures remained steady at 0.67. This ratio implies that FIIs hold near about 3 short positions in index futures for every 2 bullish positions.
 
Meanwhile, retail investors' long-short ratio in index futures declined to 1.76; whereas that of proprietary traders rose to 0.60.
 
Stocks in F&O ban period on Wednesday, October 30
 
A total of 6 stocks are placed under the futures & options ban period today. IDFC First Bank, IndiaMart InterMesh, L&T Finance, Manappuram Finance, PNB and RBL Bank. 

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First Published: Oct 30 2024 | 9:16 AM IST

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