Gold prices stall ahead of Fed rate decision, focus on 2025 outlook

Markets are pricing in a 95.4% chance of a 25 basis points cut in this meeting, expected to be announced at 2 p.m. EST (1900 GMT), according to CME's FedWatch tool

Gold prices were little changed on Wednesday as investors remained cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision, which is also expected to offer guidance on its outlook for next year.

Spot gold inched up 0.1 per cent to $2,647.92 per ounce by 0936 GMT. US gold futures were steady at $2,663.30.

"Gold price actions are less of an arrow, more of a feather at the moment and sort of drifting on book squaring," independent analyst Ross Norman said.

Attention will be on Fed policymakers' updated economic projections for 2025, released alongside the decision, particularly regarding how much more rates are expected to be eased next year.

 

Markets are pricing in a 95.4 per cent chance of a 25 basis points cut in this meeting, expected to be announced at 2 p.m. EST (1900 GMT), according to CME's FedWatch tool. There's only about 16.3 per cent chance of a reduction in January.

"If the dot plot points to 2 cuts or less for 2025, markets would read it as hawkish, and the US$ could see another round of strength," OCBC analysts said in a note.

A stronger dollar makes greenback-priced bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies. [US$]

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Riksbank, and Norges Bank are expected to deliver their policy verdicts later this week.

In the short term, range-bound trading is expected heading into the new year, with no dramatic moves anticipated in either direction, Norman said.

Investors will also pay attention to Thursday's US GDP data and inflation data due later this week, both of which could impact bullion demand.

Spot silver was down 0.5 per cent to $30.40 per ounce, platinum slipped 0.7 per cent to $932.38, while palladium declined 0.4 per cent to $930.61.