 "IndiGo (Photo: Bloomberg)")
IndiGo Q4 results preview: Shares of InterGlobe Aviation, the parent firm of IndiGo airlines, hit a fresh record high of Rs 4,441 apiece on the BSE on Thursday, ahead of the company’s March quarter (Q4FY24) results.
At 11:15 AM, IndiGo stock price was quoting 1 per cent higher at Rs 4,397 apiece as against 0.5 per cent rise in the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex.
Analysts expect robust demand, and lower competitive intensity to support the low-cost airline's Q4FY24 earnings.
Here’s what to expect from IndiGo’s Q4 results today:
Nuvama Institutional Equities
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The brokerage expects Ebitdar (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation, and rent) to grow by 69 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 5,006.5 crore. Sequentially, however, it would be a dip of 9 per cent.
This would be attributable to robust demand and weakening of smaller airline players, it said. Besides, yields may remain flat at Rs 5 as supply constraints persist (over 70 aircraft remain grounded). However, we expect passenger load factor (PLFs) to remain high at 86 per cent while PAX traffic may grow to 27.6 million.
It sees revenue at Rs 17,879.4 crore for the quarter, up 26 per cent Y-o-Y from Rs 14,160.6 crore in Q4FY23, but down 8 per cent Q-o-Q from Rs 19,452.1 crore in Q3FY24.
Core net profit is seen at Rs 2,540.2 crore, up a staggering 176 per cent Y-o-Y from Rs 919.2 crore, but down 15 per cent Q-o-Q from Rs 2,998.1 crore in Q3FY24.
Kotak Institutional Equities
The brokerage pegs net sales at Rs 16,529.7 crore, up around 17 per cent Y-o-Y, but down 15 per cent Q-o-Q. Ebitda is seen at Rs 3,169.6 crore (up 15 per cent Y-o-Y/down 38.4 per cent Q-o-Q), while reported net profit is seen at Rs 964.4 crore (up 5 per cent Y-o-Y/down 68 per cent Q-o-Q).
Ebitda margin is seen contracting 26 basis points Y-o-Y/730bps Q-o-Q to 19.2 per cent.
It expects an over 16 per cent Y-o-Y change in passenger count in the quarter, largely driven by higher load factor at 87 per cent.
“We expect revenue per available seat kilometer (RASK) less cost per available seat km (CASK) (excludes other income and forex) at Rs 0.12 per ASK, against Rs 0.07 per ASK in Q4FY23. The difference would have been higher if not for higher damp lease cost, built in a healthy pricing environment,” it said.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services
MOFSL bakes in net profit at Rs 2,370 crore for Q4FY24 with net sales seen at Rs 16,520 crore.
It anticiapates RPK to grow 16 per cent Y-o-Y, and PLF at 87.5 per cent (up from 85.8 per cent in Q3FY24). ASK is seen growing 12 per cent Y-o-Y, with seasonality coming into play in Q4FY24.
According to the brokerage, the average fare was down 17 per cent on one-month forward bookings, while the same was down 23 per cent on 15-day forward bookings.
“Outlook on P&W engine-fitted aircraft (being grounded in FY25) is a key monitorable. Further, the commentary on impending competition would be keenly monitored,” it said.
