Market outlook Jun 28: GIFT Nifty hints quiet open; telecom stocks in focus

Pre-market update for Friday: Shares of telecom companies are likely to be in focus following the up to 25 per cent tariff hike by Reliance Jio;.

All you need to know before the Indian stock market opens for trade on Friday June 28, 2024: The BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty have been on a record breaking spree for the last three trading sessions. On Thursday, the Sensex crossed the 79,000-mark for the first-time ever, while the NSE counterpart zoomed past the 24,000 milestone.

At 07:00 AM, GIFT Nifty futures quoted around 24,190 levels, indicating a likely quiet start to the trading action.

On Friday, stock specific moves will be in focus, with telecom stocks likely to hog the limelight following Reliance Jio’s up to 25 per cent tariff hike. Reports suggest, that Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea too are likely to follow suit soon. READ MORE

 

Today is also the last trading day for the first half of the calendar year 2024, and the first session for the July futures & options series. 

On the broader market outlook for July Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities said, from a seasonality perspective July has been one of the most bullish months for Indian equity markets. Nifty has closed on a positive note in 9 out of the last 10 years with an average gain of 3.3 per cent. The Nifty may target 24,500 in July.

Meanwhile in other market news, the Sebi has revised quantitative parameters, such as median-quarter sigma order size, marketwide position limit, and average daily delivery value for the selection of stocks in the F&O segment. READ MORE

Government securities inclusion in JP Morgan Bond Index

Indian government bonds, or government securities (G-secs), will be included in JP Morgan-Emerging Market Bond Index starting today, June 28 2024. The inclusion that starts on June 28 will be spread over a period of 10 months till March 31, 2025.

How will India's inclusion in the JPMorgan Emerging Market Index impact bond markets? Analysts say the inclusion could lead to reduction in cost of capital and in turn also benefit other asset classes. READ ABOUT IT HERE

All you need to know about Sebi's proposals

Market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) eased the delisting framework to allow promoters a fair shot at taking their companies private. That apart, it also revised the inclusion and removal eligibility criteria for stocks from the futures & options (F&O) segment.

Tightening rules for finfluencers and those doling out stock advice, Sebi barred regulated entities and people from having any association with anyone providing direct or indirect recommendations or claiming guaranteed returns.

Jio rings in up to 25% tariff hike with effect from July 1

Reliance Jio announced a 12-25 per cent tariff hike across the board for mobile plans, in both prepaid and postpaid segments. Analysts expect the other telecom service providers, Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel to follow suit.

Global mood

Overnight, the US market managed to eke out gains in a rather volatile session of trade. Tonight the focus will be on the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation – the core PCE price index for May. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones edged 0.1 per cent higher, while NASDAQ gained 0.3 per cent.

The US 10-year bond yield quoted around 4.3 per cent. Among commodities, Gold futures jumped back to $2,330 per ounce, while Brent Crude Oil regained the $85 per barrel threshold.

Markets, in the Asia-Pacific region, were seen trading on a positive note. Japan’s Nikkei rallied 0.9 per cent. The Australian equity benchmarks – the S&P ASX 200 and All Ordinaries advanced up to 0.4 per cent.  each. Kospi and Taiwan were up 0.1 per cent each.

FII, DII flows

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned net buyers for the month of June, following aggressive net purchases of stocks worth Rs 7,659 crore on Thursday. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs), hoewer, net sold shares to the tune of Rs 3,606 crore.

Trading strategy for Friday, June 28 - Should you be a buyer or seller in the Indian stock market today? Here’s what experts recommend:

Ashwin Ramani, Derivatives & Technical Analyst, SAMCO Securities

The Nifty has now given three consecutive higher close on the daily chart. The put writers, the Bulls, with 2.17 lakh contracts lead the call writers, the Bears, having 1.72 lakh contracts, marginally at 24,000 strike and the option activity at this strike will provide cues about Nifty’s future direction.

On the Bank Nifty, the call writers lead the put writers at the 53,000 Strike and option activity at this strike will provide cues about Bank Nifty’s upcoming direction.

Om Mehra, Technical Analyst, SAMCO Securities

The Nifty reached a new milestone, surpassing the 24,000 mark. Technical indicators like the short-term moving average, MACD, and RSI remain positive, with no negative divergence. 

The Nifty has sustained its bullish trend following the formation of three white soldier candles in the daily timeframe. The key support has shifted towards the 23,800-23,850 zone, offering potential buying opportunities on any pullback from the current level. The resistance is placed near the 24,180-24,200 zone as indicated by the 2.618 per cent Fibonacci retracement level.

The Bank Nifty reached a new all-time high over three consecutive days, peaking at 53,181 before settling lower on Thursday at 52,811, a marginal decline of 0.1 per cent. The resistance at the 2.618 per cent Fibonacci level near 53,300 suggests a potential barrier.

Following a bearish candle on the daily chart, Bank Nifty may consolidate within a range with subdued momentum. The support is currently positioned at the 52,200-52,000 levels. A breakthrough above 53,080 could signal a continuation of the uptrend towards 53,450-53,500 levels.

Rahul Sharma Head Technical and Derivatives Research, JM Financial Services

After 5 relatively subdued series/months, we have a decisive directional move in June and a record expiry above the 24,000 mark. All round performance was seen but key reversals was seen in IT Index which was under pressure for many months. Private Banking and Financials remained strong in this month. Going ahead we expect momentum to continue with resistance levels placed at 24,200 and 24,450.

Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates

Technically, the Nifty has achieved short term consolidation breakout target of 24,000 levels, and managed to close above it. If the index holds above 24,000 levels, then rally could extend towards 24,250-24,500 in the short term.

The Bank Nifty has formed bearish candle near 53,000-53,200 hurdle. If the index sustains above the 53,200 level, the rally could extend towards 54,000.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst, LKP Securities

The Nifty continued moving up as the bulls took the index to a new all-time high. The Nifty made new all-time highs for the last three consecutive sessions, showing signs of resilience amid global sluggishness. The trend remains positive for the short term or until it breaks below 23,800. On the higher end, the index might move towards 24,200.

Kunal Shah, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst at LKP Securities

The Bank Nifty experienced volatile moves, trading in a broad range with support at 52,700 and resistance at 53,100. The index needs to decisively sustain above 53,000 for a continued move towards the 53,400/53,700 mark. However, it is trading in overbought territory, and failure to sustain above 53,000 could lead to a correction towards the 52,500/52,000 levels.

New Listing

Stanley Lifestyles to debut on the bourses today. The issue was subscribed up to 31.1 times. The Grey Market Premium (GMP) indicated a likely listing gain of up to 50 per cent for the stock.

Primary Market Update

Nephro Care India IPO to open for subscription on the NSE SME segment. The company to accept bids for the IPO in Rs 85 – Rs 90 price band in multiples of 1,600 equity shares.

Vraj Iron and Steel IPO closes today. The issue so far as garnered 7.46 times subscription.

Similarly, Diensten Tech IPO in the NSE SME segment also closes on Friday. The issue has seen 3.47 times subscription so far.