Market today: US elections, Fed policy decision, Q2 results, Afcons listing

Investors will closely watch the developments in the US with respect to elections and interest rate cuts this week

Share market today: This week will be busy for the investors as they will closely watch the US elections results scheduled on Tuesday (November 5), third quarter earnings and the US Federal Reserve's policy decision.

 

Data suggest a neck-and-neck fight between Republican Donald Trump and his Democratic rival Kamala Harris.

 

Additionally, the market expects the US central bank to cut its benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points (bps). On Friday, data showed the US nonfarm payrolls increased by 12,000 jobs in October. The economy added 112,000 fewer jobs in August and September than previously reported.

 

Ahead of the election, Wall Street on Friday ended higher with the Dow Jones up 0.69 per cent, followed by the S&P 500 up 0.41 per cent and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.80 per cent.

 

 

Asian markets are trading mixed today. At the last count, China's mainline CSI 300 and Shanghai were flat with a negative bias. Japanese markets are closed for 'Culture Day'.

 

Back home, Indian shares are poised to open lower amid mixed global signals. At around 6:54 AM, GIFT Nifty futures were down 78.5 points at 24,304.5

 

On Friday, as the nation celebrated Diwali, bourses conducted a muhurat trading session in the evening for an hour, where, the BSE Sensex closed up 335.06 points, or 0.42 per cent, at 79,724.12, and the Nifty 50 finished at 24,299.55, up 94.20 points, or 0.39 per cent.

 

This week investors will closely monitor Q2 results of IRCTC, IRFC, JK Paper and Raymond on Nov.4; Dr Reddy's Labs, GAIL India, Mankind Pharma, Oil India, PB Fintech and Titan on Nov. 5; Delta Corp, Granules India, Gujarat Gas , Power Grid , and Tata Steel on Nov.6 and IRCON International, Lupin, and M&M on Nov.7; Ashok Leyland , MRF, Tata Motors and other companies on Nov. 8.

 

They will also digest auto sales data released for October.

 

In wholesale terms, the passenger vehicle sector recorded a modest 1.8 per cent increase from the previous year, to a total of 401,447 units. Retail sales posted a 20 per cent rise on the festive push. READ MORE

 

In the primary market, shares of Afcons Infrastructure will be listed on bourses.

 

Investors will also eye macroeconomic data such as HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Final for October (today), and HSBC composite and services PMI Final (Wednesday).

Global cues

China’s parliament is scheduled to kick off today and authorities are expected to announce more details on fiscal support when the meeting concludes on Friday (November 8).

 

Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will also be released on Tuesday.

 

On the economic front, China's trade (Wednesday) and inflation data for October (Saturday) will be eyed.

West Asia update

As per reports, Israeli airstrikes killed at least 31 people in the Gaza Strip on Sunday, Palestinian medics said, with nearly half of the deaths in northern areas where the army has waged a month-long campaign it says is aimed at preventing Hamas from regrouping.

Crude oil check

Oil prices rose by more than $1 on Monday after OPEC+ said on Sunday it would delay a planned December output hike by one month.

 

Last seen, Brent crude oil futures were up 1.71 per cent at $74.35 per bbl.

Here's how analysts view today's (November 4) trading session

Jatin Gedia, Research Analyst, Sharekhan 

On the daily charts we can observe that the Nifty has been trading in the range of 24,500 – 24,070 since the last five trading sessions. (Post the range bound action in the index on account of the monthly expiry of October series derivative contracts), we are likely to witness trending moves. Crucial support levels are 24,200 – 24,180 while resistance is placed at 24,500 – 24,550.

 

Nifty Bank is currently trading around the key hourly moving averages of 51,800 – 51,600 and is likely to resume its upmove towards the 52,400 – 52,500 zone from a short term perspective.

 

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst, LKP Securities

Sentiment may continue to remain weak as long as Nifty stays below 24,500, with any rise toward this level likely facing selling pressure. On the downside, support is placed at 24,000, while resistance levels are seen at 24,500 and 24,750.

 

Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities

Nifty formed a reasonable bear candle on October 31 and just escaped from forming a fifth down week as it closed 0.1 per cent up over the week. However, for the week it has closed near the weekly low. Nifty could now take support from 23,893 while facing resistance form the 24,492-24,567 band over the near term.

FII, DII update: How much did FIIs, and DIIs buy or sell on November 1?

As per NSE data, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) were net sellers of Indian equities worth Rs 211.93 crore. 

 

Likewise, the DII's were also net sellers of equities worth Rs 377.33 crore.