Markets see 70% chance of Modi-led BJP forming the next govt: Jefferies

Out of the last four national elections, the previous two elections results were more on the expected lines, yet the Indian market outperformed MSCI AxJ during the election results period

Political continuity is the most likely outcome of the upcoming general elections in May 2024, wrote analysts at Jefferies in a recent note, and attach a 70 per cent probability (base-case for the markets) that Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will form a majority government.

Given this, they expect property and capex-related plays including cement, infrastructure & capital goods, large banks and small-and midcaps (SMID) to do well.

Check sectors to bet on ahead of General Elections 2024

However, the key risk factors, Jefferies said, would be anti-incumbency, small vote share swings causing large impact on