Stock Markets Today, January 31, 2025: The mood around the Budget 2025, US Q4 GDP data, positive global equity markets, and Q3 earnings are expected to drive benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty50, today.
The Economic Survey 2024-25 is set to be released on Friday, providing a comprehensive review of India's economic performance over the past financial year. The report, published a day before the Union Budget, will outline key trends in sectors such as agriculture, industry, and services while suggesting policy measures to address economic challenges and drive growth.
Back home, at 6:40 AM, GIFT Nifty futures indicated a strong start, up 71 points at 23,489.
In the previous session, Sensex gained 0.30 per cent to close at 76,759.81, while Nifty50 added 0.37 per cent to 23,249.50.
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Notably, the Nifty50 index is on track for its fourth consecutive monthly decline, a rare occurrence, with only five such instances in history, the last being in 2001.
Domestic cues
Domestic market mood will be shaped by budget concerns and Q3 earnings, with key results expected from companies like IndusInd Bank, Sun Pharma, Nestle, ONGC, UPL, PNB, and Vedanta. Investors will also focus on earnings from L&T, Kalyan Jewellers, and Biocon.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has set new guidelines for evaluating the performance of committees at market infrastructure institutions like stock exchanges and depositories.
Non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) have become a popular choice for underserved sectors, especially small businesses and households, as they operate in areas where traditional banks are less accessible.
Despite losses for SIP investors over the past year, inflows into equity mutual funds are expected to remain steady.
RBI’s open market operation (OMO) saw bids of Rs 1.2 trillion for Rs 20,000 crore worth of securities. Non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) are becoming increasingly important for underserved sectors, especially small businesses and households.
Global cues
Global markets saw mostly positive movement on Friday, with Asia following Wall Street's overnight gains as investors analysed earnings from major tech companies.
The US economy grew at an annualised rate of 2.3 per cent in Q4 2024, marking the slowest growth in three quarters, down from 3.1 per cent in Q3 and lower than the 2.6 per cent forecast.
Meanwhile, Nikkei rose 0.13 per cent, and the broader Topix index gained 0.1 per cent. Japan's consumer price index, excluding fresh food, increased 2.5 per cent in January, matching estimates. The unemployment rate in Japan for December dropped to 2.4 per cent, slightly below the expected 2.5 per cent.
Kospi opened lower after a four-day break, down 0.8 per cent. Meanwhile, the ASX 200 was up 0.4 per cent as the country’s producer price index rose by 3.7 per cent for the year through December 2024. Hong Kong and Chinese markets were closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.
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In the US, the Dow Jones rose 0.38 per cent. The S&P 500 increased 0.53 per cent and the Nasdaq gained 0.25 per cent. However, stocks trimmed their gains towards the close after President Donald Trump announced plans to impose 25 per cent tariffs on US imports from Canada and Mexico.
Notably, US initial jobless claims fell by 16,000 to 207,000 for the week ending January 25th, beating expectations of 220,000 and marking a sharp drop from the previous week's two-month high.
Also, the European Central Bank cut its key interest rates by 25 basis points in January 2025, lowering the deposit facility rate to 2.75 per cent, the main refinancing rate to 2.90 per cent, and the marginal lending rate to 3.15 per cent.
Other market triggers
FII, DII
FIIs sold shares worth Rs 4,582.95 crore on January 30, while DIIs bought shares worth 2,165.89 crore.
IPO market
Dr. Agarwal's Health Care IPO (Mainline) and Malpani Pipes And Fittings IPO (SME) will enter Day 3 of their subscription.
HM Electro IPO (SME) and GB Logistics IPO (SME) will make their debut.
Commodity market
Gold prices hit a record high on Thursday, driven by safe-haven demand amid US tariff threats and focus on a key inflation report for insights into the Federal Reserve's policy. Spot gold rose 1.3 per cent to $2,794.42, reaching $2,798.24 earlier, while US gold futures gained 1.8 per cent to $2,845.20.
Oil prices edged higher, with Brent crude up 0.4 per cent to $76.87 and US crude rising 0.2 per cent to $72.73, despite concerns over potential US tariffs on Canadian and Mexican oil imports.
Here's how analysts are assessing today's (January 31) trading session:
Shrikant Chouhan, head of equity research at Kotak Securities
23150/76400 would be the key support level. Above this level, the pullback formation is likely to continue. On the upside, it could bounce back to 23400-23450/77000-77200. Conversely, if it falls below 23150/76400, the uptrend would be vulnerable. Below this level, traders may prefer to exit their long positions.
Rupak De, senior technical analyst at LKP Securities
Support is seen at 23,200, and a break below this level could trigger a decline towards 23,000. On the other hand, a decisive move above 23,300 might push the index towards 23,500.