RVNL, Voda Idea, Dixon, HDFC Bk can rally up to 27% on MSCI inclusion boost

MSCI India August rejig: 7 stocks to be included in the India Index, HDFC Bank weightage to increase in 2 tranches; Bandhan Bank on its way out.

Global index provider - the MSCI on Tuesday in its latest index rejig for the month of August said will add 7 stocks to its MSCI India Index, a part of the MSCI Global Standard Index, while dropping 1 out. 

Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL) along with Vodafone Idea (Voda Idea), Dixon Technologies, Oil India, Prestige Estates, Oracle Financial, and Zydus Lifesciences will be included in the MSCI India Index. Bandhan Bank, will be the only stock, to be removed from the India index.

A total of 25 smallcap stocks will be added to the MSCI India Domestic Smallcap Index; which also includes the likes of Aurionpro Solutions, Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar, Inox Green Energy Services, Shakti Pumps, Inox Wind Energy, Max Estates, Heritage Foods, and Gulf Oil Lubricants. 

 

That apart, MSCI will be increasing HDFC Bank's weightage in two tranches; first after the August review; and then in November if the foreign headroom permits at least 20 per cent.

According to Nuvama Alternative and Quantitative Research estimates, post the August round of weightage increase, HDFC Bank will likely to attract inflows worth $ 1.5 billion. 

Meanwhile, the 7 stocks to be added are likely to see inflows in the range of $ 170 million - $ 281 million. Reports suggest that Dixon Technologies will receive the highest inflow of up to $ 281 million followed by Vodafone Idea ($ 278 million). RVNL is likely to see inflows of around $ 219 million. These adjustments will take place on August 30, 2024. 

On Tuesday, as of 10 AM, these stocks traded on a mixed note. Dixon Technologies had gained 3 per cent, while RVNL, Oil India and OFSS were the other significant movers. On the other hand, HDFC Bank, Zydus Life and Bandhan Bank shed 2.5 per cent each. Voda Idea and Prestige Estates too traded on a negative note.

With just 13 trading sessions to go for the August 30 MSCI rejig date, what should be your strategy in these stocks?

Here's a trading guide on these stocks; technical charts suggest watching out for these key support and resistance levels.

HDFC Bank

Current Price: Rs 1,622

Upside Potential: 8.5%

Support: Rs 1,625; Rs 1,590

Resistance: Rs 1,685; Rs 1,700; Rs 1,725

HDFC Bank, on Monday, tested resistance at super trend line on the daily scale at Rs 1,680 levels. This morning, the stock has dipped back and is seen testing support around its 20-DMA (Daily Moving Average) at Rs 1,625 levels; below which next support stands at Rs 1,590.

The key momentum oscillators on the daily and weekly chart seem to be favourably placed, with the DI (Directional Index) showing steady gain in strength. Hence, the stock may look to bounce back soon.

On the upside, the stock can potentially jump to Rs 1,760 levels; with interim resistance likely around Rs 1,685, Rs 1,700 and Rs 1,725 levels. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART 

RVNL

Current Price: Rs 591

Upside Potential: 26.9%

Support: Rs 514; Rs 490

Resistance: Rs 625; Rs 650

RVNL recently tested support around its super trend line at Rs 514 on the daily chart and then bounced back. As reported earlier, the overall bias for RVNL is likely to remain positive as long as the stock trades above Rs 490 levels. 

Going ahead, the stock needs to consistently sustain above Rs 585 for the bullish momentum to sustain. On the higher side, the stock may look to test Rs 625 - Rs 650 levels. A weekly break and close above Rs 640 can trigger a fresh round of rally at the counter with a potential upside target at Rs 750 levels. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

Dixon Technologies

Current Price: Rs 11,919

Bias: Range-bound

Support: Rs 11,585; Rs 11,300

Resistance: Rs 11,945; Rs 12,225

Dixon Technologies stock seems to have entered a consolidation phase; wherein the stock may gyrate in the range of Rs 10,900 - Rs 12,600 for some time now. Interim resistance for the stock is seen at Rs 11,945 and Rs 12,225 levels. On the downside, support can be expected around 11,585 and Rs 11,300 levels. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

Vodafone Idea

Current Price: Rs 15.70

Upside Potential: 14.7%

Support: Rs 15.19

Resistance: Rs 17.15

Shares of Voda Idea have consistently found support around the 20-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) in the last 1 month; the 20-WMA stands at Rs 15.19. As long as Voda Idea stock manages to sustain above the same, the stock can attempt to re-test Rs 18 on the upside. Interim resistance can be expected around Rs 17.15 levels. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

Oil India

Current Price: Rs 687

Upside Potential: 24.8%

Support: Rs 669; Rs 645

Resistance: Rs 730; Rs 747

Oil India has given a fresh breakout on the daily scale, as the stock is seen trading above the higher-end of the Bollinger Bands on the daily scale. The near-term bias for the stock is likely to remain upbeat as long as the stock sustains above Rs 669 levels; below which support exists at Rs 645. 

On the upside, the stock seems on course to test the super trend line on the weekly chart at Rs 857 levels; with interim resistance likely at Rs 730 and Rs 747. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

Prestige Estates

Current Price: Rs 1,749

Support: Rs 1,670; Rs 61,585

Resistance: Rs 1,805; Rs 1,895

Prestige Estates stock has been making lower-highs and lower-lows on the daily scale in recent times. The stock seems to be facing resistance around its 50-DMA at Rs 1,805 and the super trend at Rs 1,895. 

The stock will need to overcome these two hurdles for the sentiment to turn favourable. On the downside, the stock is likely to seek support around its 100-DMA at Rs 1,585; above which support is seen at Rs 1,670. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

Oracle Financial Services Software (OFSS) 

Current Price: Rs 10,780

Downside Risk: 16.5%

Support: Rs 10,725; Rs 10,000

Resistance: Rs 11,300; Rs 11,600

OFSS is seen attempting to find support around its 20-DMA at Rs 10,725 level. The upside at the counter, however, seems limited with resistance expected around Rs 11,300 and Rs 11,600 levels.

On the downside, stronger support for the stock exists around Rs 10,000-mark; break and trade below the same can trigger a slide towards Rs 9,000; wherein lies the 100-DMA. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

Zydus Lifesciences

Current Price: Rs 1,220

Downside Risk: 7.4%

Support: Rs 1,218; Rs 1,193

Resistance: Rs 1,304

Zydus Lifesciences has retraced after testing resistance around the higher-end of the Bollinger Bands on the daily scale; which stands at Rs 1,304. Further, the key momentum oscillators have shown a negative, which could lead to short-term weakness at the counter.

Below the 20-DMA at Rs 1,218, the stock near support at Rs 1,193; below which a dip to Rs 1,130 seems likely. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

Bandhan Bank

Current Price: Rs 192

Upside Potential: 7.8%

Support: Rs 191; Rs 181

Resistance: Rs 201 

Bandhan Bank has dropped as much as 13.5 per cent from its high of Rs 222 on July 30. The stock at present is seen testing support around its super trend line at Rs 191 levels. Break and trade below the same can trigger a fall to Rs 181.

On the positive side, in case, support at Rs 191 is held, the stock can attempt a pullback to RS 207 levels; with interim resistance likely at Rs 201. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART