Share Market Today: RBI MPC meet, Q2 earnings, Middle East war, Oil, FIIs

Stock market today, October 07, 2024: Indian benchmarks, the Sensex and Nifty50, are set for a positive start, supported by strong global cues. 

At 6:40 AM, GIFT Nifty futures were trading 89 points higher at 25,262 levels, suggesting a robust opening for the markets.

Domestic investors will be keeping a close eye on the RBI MPC meeting that commences today. The newly reconstituted Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to maintain the key policy rate, or repo rate, at 6.5 per cent, marking the tenth consecutive meeting with no change. The RBI's decision will be announced on October 9, 2024.

 

Investors will also monitor the upcoming September quarter earnings (Q2FY25), which will kick off this week. IT giant TCS is scheduled to announce its results on October 10. Other companies reporting earnings on the same day include GM Breweries, Anand Rathi, IREDA, and Tata Elxsi.

Global markets

In the US, a stronger-than-expected jobs report released on Friday bolstered confidence in the possibility of a "soft landing" for the US economy, leading the Dow to close at a record high. Non-farm payrolls for September surged to 254,000, up from 159,000 the previous month, while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1  per cent from 4.2  per cent.

Consequently, the Dow Jones gained 0.81  per cent, the S&P 500 jumped 0.90  per cent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 1.22  per cent, marking the fourth consecutive week of gains for all three indices.

Asian markets also followed suit, with Japan’s Nikkei leading the way, gaining 2 per cent as investors anticipate a week filled with central bank decisions across the region. Three central banks—Bank of Korea, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and Reserve Bank of India—are set to announce their interest rate decisions this week.

Geopolitical woes

Israel’s army chief, Lt Gen Herzi Halevi, announced on Sunday that Israeli forces have achieved victory over Hamas' military wing, claiming major reductions in Hezbollah's capabilities by eliminating key leadership figures. 

Early Sunday, Israeli airstrikes targeted a mosque and a school sheltering displaced individuals in the Gaza Strip, resulting in at least 26 fatalities and 93 injuries, according to reports. In Lebanon, powerful explosions were reported in Beirut's southern suburbs late Saturday as Israeli bombardments intensified. 

Oil prices surge

US crude oil prices posted their largest weekly gain in over a year, driven by concerns that Israel might strike Iran’s crude facilities in retaliation for a ballistic missile attack from Tehran. The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate surged 9.09 per cent last week, marking the largest weekly gain since March 2023, while the global benchmark Brent increased 8.43 per cent, the highest since January 2023.

Gold prices drop

Gold prices fell on Friday following the robust US jobs report, which strengthened the dollar and led analysts to revise their expectations regarding a potential aggressive rate cut from the Federal Reserve in the upcoming month. 

Spot gold decreased 0.3 per cent to $2,647.52 per ounce, after reaching a record high of $2,685.42 last week. US gold futures dropped approximately 0.5 per cent to $2,666.60. 

Global economic indicators

Investors are also looking forward to various economic data releases this week. Key indicators include September inflation figures from Thailand (today), forex data from China and Japan (today), US August trade data (October 8), Japan August current account (October 8), US FOMC minutes (October 9), Japan's September PPI (October 10), US September core inflation (October 10), US September inflation (October 10), and US initial jobless claims for the week ending October 5 (October 10).

Also on the radar are Britain’s August GDP and manufacturing/industrial production figures (October 11), along with India’s manufacturing and industrial production data and forex figures (October 11).

Market activity

On October 4, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued their selling spree, selling shares worth Rs 9,896.95 crore. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought shares worth Rs 8,905.08 crore.

IPO corner

HVAX Technologies Limited IPO (SME) and Saj Hotels Limited IPO (SME) are set to debut on the bourses today, while Khyati Global Ventures Limited IPO (SME) will enter its second day of subscription.

Previous session highlights

In the previous session on October 4, the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty50 closed the week in negative territory, down nearly 1  per cent each, influenced by widespread selling across sectors. The BSE Sensex fell 808.65 points or 0.98  per cent to end at 81,688.45. Similarly, the Nifty50 declined 235.50 points or 0.93  per cent to settle at 25,014.60.

Here's how analysts are assessing today's (October 07) trading session:

Rupak De, senior technical analyst at LKP Securities
 

The Nifty witnessed a bear attack for the second consecutive day on October 4. Sustained trades below key levels triggered a correction towards 25,000. The sentiment has turned extremely weak, with higher levels being used as selling zones. On the lower end, the next support is seen at 24,750, while on the higher end, resistance is visible at 25,300.

Deepak Jasani, head of retail research at HDFC Securities
 

Nifty fell for the fifth consecutive session forming a bear candle with a long upper shadow. This means that the upward retracement is happening in a running manner. Over the week, Nifty fell 4.45 per cent retracing the gains of several weeks. This is a negative sign though oversold conditions may mean a small pullback in the near term. Nifty could now take support at 24,753 and later 24,420 while 25,453 could act as a resistance in the near term.  

Anand James, chief market strategist at Geojit Financial Services
 

While we expect a pause near 25000, an attempt to turn higher could play out earlier than that. For now, 25,460 is expected to have limited upsides, but we will weigh the prospects for 25,690, on the go. Alternatively, inability to float above 25,300 could quickly pave way for 25,000 or even 24,600