Stock market outlook Jun 24: Nifty rally under threat? Key levels to track

Sensex, Nifty trade set-up for Monday, June 24: Daily chart suggests that the rally on the Nifty is showing signs of tiredness; near support seen at 23,400, here's what experts recommend.

Despite Friday’s volatility, the BSE and NSE benchmark indices – the S&P BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty 50 managed to extend their winning run into the third straight week on June 21 following the Lok Sabha 2024 verdict.

The Nifty 50 index has rallied 4.3 per cent or 970 points in the last three weeks, and so far registered a new summit at 23,667.

Will the up move continue this week or is the Nifty rally under threat?

Technically, the Nifty is seen quoting comfortably above the key moving averages on the daily scale. But, the key momentum oscillators are showing some signs of exhaustion, hence one need to remain cautious at higher levels. 

 

The MACD (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence) is seen converging, while the Slow Stochastic has witnessed a negative crossover. 

As per the daily charts, the key Nifty levels to watch on the Nifty in the near-term – The Nifty is likely to face resistance around 23,850 levels. In case of a dip, the NSE benchmark has near support at 23,400 levels, below which it can potentially slide towards its 20-DMA (Daily Moving Average) at 23,070 levels.

Meanwhile, for the BSE Sensex – the weekly Fibonacci chart suggests a likely trading range of 76,550 – 77,850 this week. Interim support for the BSE benchmark is seen at 76,800 and 76,685; whereas, resistance can be expected around 77,600 and 77,735 levels.

Trading strategy for Monday, June 24 - Should you be a buyer or seller today? Here’s what market experts recommend:

Ashwin Ramani, Derivatives & Technical Analyst, SAMCO Securities

In the Nifty options - put writers (Bulls) exiting and call writing was observed at the 23,500 & 23,600 Strike on Friday. The Nifty has been moving around the 23,400 - 23,670 range since last four trading sessions. A breakout on either side of the range followed by the option activity at the 23,500 Strike will provide cues about Nifty’s direction ahead of the final expiry of the June series.

In case of Bank Nifty, put writers (Bulls) exited from the 51,800 Strike which led to the down move in index on Friday. Bank Nifty has formed a hanging man pattern on the daily chart which is hinting towards mild weakness. The option activity at the 51,500 Strike will provide cues about Bank Nifty’s upcoming direction.

Om Mehra, Technical Analyst, SAMCO Securities

A bearish candle has formed on the Nifty chart, with the day’s high and opening level remaining almost identical. Further, the Nifty breached the rising trendline on the hourly chart from the last swing low. The daily RSI stands at 60, slightly skewing towards the average line. The immediate support remains at 23,300, while resistance is placed near the 23,700-23,740 zone.

The Bank Nifty formed a bearish daily candle. However Bank Nifty is trading above its short-term moving average, with the Fibonacci retracement of 23.6 per cent at 50,600 acting as strong support. The index may consolidate in the coming sessions, as the upper Bollinger band places resistance around the 52,000 mark.

Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates

Technically, on a daily basis, the Nifty has formed bearish candle. Moreover, the index wiped out all the weekly gains and settled the week on a flat note, indicating distribution at higher levels.

As long as the Nifty holds 23,330 levels, bullish momentum will continue, on higher side, 23,700 and 23,800 will act as short term hurdle.

The Bank Nifty has formed bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. As per this pattern, 51,935 will act as resistance. However, index managed to sustain above the previous barrier of 51,134. Thus, 51,100–51,000 will act as immediate support for the index. Thus, we expect Bank Nifty to consolidate in the range of 51,000–52,000 in the short term.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst, LKP Securities

The Nifty has been hovering within the 23,300 – 23,600 range, indicating indecisiveness, which sets the stage for a very volatile monthly expiry. A decisive move above 23,600 might take the index towards 24,000 in the short term, whereas failure to hold above 23,300 might trigger panic in the market. Below 23,300, the Nifty might fall towards 22,750 in the short term.

Kunal Shah, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst at LKP Securities

Immediate resistance for the Bank Nifty is placed at 52,000, where the highest open interest is built up on the call side. The index needs to surpass this mark to continue its upward movement. On the downside, the lower end support is placed at 51,000, where the highest open interest is built up on the put side. Dips towards this support level should be viewed as an ideal buying opportunity.