Stock Markets: Will Nifty hit 25,000 or drop back to 24,000 by year-end?

The Nifty has retraced over 38 per cent of its recent losses; technically the Nifty seems on course to test 24,700 levels in the near-term. Track key support, resistance levels here.

The NSE Nifty 50 index has rallied over 5.5 per cent from its recent lows in the last two weeks. The Nifty had hit a low of 23,263 on November 21, 2021, and now quotes around 24,500 levels.  In the process, the Nifty 50 index has managed to sustain above its short-term or the 20-DMA (Daily Moving Average) for the last two weeks. At its low, the Nifty had dropped below its long-term or the 200-DMA for the first time since March 2023. The NSE benchmark index languished around the 200-DMA for four trading sessions and then staged a pullback rally.  The questing now arises that - Does the pullback rally has enough legs to move higher? Will the Nifty extend the rally towards the 25,000-mark or will it fall back to 24,000-levels by the 2024-end?  Among key events in December, the RBI Policy outcome on Friday, tomorrow, could weigh on the near-term market trend. Even though consensus expect RBI to hold rates, the commentary on the GDP, inflation forecast and liquidity measures, if any, will be closely watched.  Thereafter, the US Federal Reserve meeting - the last one before President elect Donald Trump takes charge - is scheduled for December 17 - 18. At the US market, at this point, seem to be factoring another 25 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve.  That apart, any unpredictable news flow on the global front given the conflicts in Russia-Ukraine and renewed threat of US-China trade war could suddenly sway the market sentiment.  Against this backdrop, here's how the Nifty looks placed on the technical charts:  Nifty  Last close: 24,467  Support: 24,400; 24,000  Resistance: 24,600; 24,700; 24,770  The NSE Nifty 50 is now quoting above the 38.2 per cent retracement of its recent fall. Thus, technically, the Nifty could now extend the up move towards the 50 per cent or 61.8 per cent retracement levels at 24,770 and 25,125 levels, respectively.  On the chart, at present, the Nifty is seen testing resistance around its 50-DMA, which stands at 24,598; above which near resistance for the index exists around the 100-DMA at 24,702. The 100-DMA also coincides with the 50-WMA (Weekly Moving Average). Thus, it would be fair to assess that the Nifty is likely to face a barrage of hurdles in the 24,600 - 24,770 levels. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART  Only, break and sustained trade above 24,770 levels, can trigger a rally past the 25,000-mark. The medium-term chart suggests the Nifty could rally all the way to 25,700 levels on the upside in the coming weeks.  In case of a downturn, the 38.2 per cent retracement level at 24,400 is likely to act as the near-term support. Sustained trade below the same, can drag the Nifty towards the 20-DMA at 24,000-mark, or drift lower to its 200-DMA at 23,690 levels.