Will Sensex fall to 69,000 or cross 100,000 in 2025? What tech charts say

The yearly Fibonacci chart suggests that the BSE benchmark index can gyrate in the 69,000 - 88,600 range in the calendar year 2025; an upside breakout of the range can trigger fresh momentum.

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) benchmark equity indices - the BSE Sensex 30 and the NSE Nifty 50 are all set to the end the calendar year 2024 with notable gains of around 9 per cent each. In the process, the Sensex and the Nifty will be settling with gains for the ninth straight calendar year.  Historic data shows that the Sensex and the Nifty have been on a winning run since the calendar year 2016. The benchmark indices have trebled during this 9-year period. Way back at the end of the year 2015, the Sensex quoted around 26,000 levels and the Nifty around 7,950 levels.  In terms of per centage gains, the Sensex and the Nifty delivered their best performance in the years 2017, 2021 and 2023; while the least gains were logged in the year 2016. 

 

 

  Going ahead, what's in store for the benchmark indices in the calendar year 2025? Will the Sensex and the Nifty extend their winning run to the 10th year in a row? Here's what the technical charts suggest:  Nifty  Last Close: 23,813  Upside Potential: 7.9%  Downside Risk: 15.2%  Support: 23,570; 23,300; 22,030; 21,515; 21,350  Resistance: 24,200; 24,300; 24,600  Off late, the NSE Nifty is seen struggling around its 200-DMA (Daily Moving Average) on the daily chart, which stands at 23,860 levels. The worrying aspect is that the key momentum oscillators are unfavourably placed on the daily and the weekly scale.  Technically, the Nifty is seen testing support around its 50-WMA (Weekly Moving Average), which stands at 23,570, a key indicator the NSE index has not violated in the last 21 months. As and when, the Nifty breaks down - meaning a weekly close below the 50-WMA; it shall open the doors for further downside. As such, the Nifty may seek support around 23,300 levels; below which a slide towards 22,030; 21,515 and 21,350 levels seems likely.  In the worst case scenario, the Nifty could slide all the way to 20,200 levels - to fill a run-away gap left between 22,290 - 22,507 levels in early December 2023. This translates into a downside risk of over 15 per cent from present levels. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART  On the positive front, as long as the Nifty manages to sustain above the 50-WMA on a weekly closing basis, a pull-back from current levels cannot be ruled out. In which case, the Nifty can bounce back to 24,600 levels, with interim resistance visible at 24,200 and 24,300 levels; above which the upside for the NSE benchmark index seems capped around 25,700 levels.    The Nifty will need to trade consistently above 25,700 levels to harbour hopes of the index hitting a new all-time highs in the year 2025.  Sensex  Last Close: 78,700  Support: 74,500; 72,600; 70,700; 69,000  Resistance: 82,500; 84,800; 86,700; 88,600  Even as the BSE Sensex is poised to end the calendar year 2024 near about 9 per cent higher, the BSE benchmark has shaved-off 8.5 per cent from its peak of 85,978. The BSE benchmark was up 19 per cent at its summit in 2024.  The yearly Fibonacci chart suggests that the Sensex could gyrate in the broad range of 69,000 - 88,600 in the new year 2025. Intermediate support for the BSE Sensex is placed at 74,500, 72,600 and 70,700 levels; whereas, resistance can be expected around 82,500, 84,800 and 86,700 levels.  In the worst case scenario the Sensex could slide all-the-way to 62,700 levels. On the other hand, break and sustained trade above 88,600 levels; can trigger upside momentum towards 94,700 levels.