The balance between the demand and supply in the global aluminium market could shift between 2023 to 2025 from a modest deficit in 2021-22 to a modest surplus as both demand and supply gather pace.
China has a small aluminium surplus, which could drop substantially or turn into a deficit due to an anticipated pickup in local demand and curbs on smelting capacity due to a cap of 45 million tonnes (MT) set by the Chinese government in 2017.
Even with the cap, China holds 57 per cent of global production capacity.
The global supply outside China could grow faster,