OMC stocks seem attractive after earnings decline and correction

Resumption of more frequent revision in retail prices could be a driver. Policy risk appears low

Results for the first half (H1) of 2024-25 (FY25) of the three oil marketing companies (OMCs) — Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) — were poor with accumulated LPG losses, weaker gross refining margins (GRMs) and inventory losses dragging earnings sharply even after allowing for H1FY24’s high base.

 

However, crude prices are looking bearish, while product margins may be sustained.

 

Hence, the second half (H2) of FY25 could be better. Relatively lower crude price volatility could mean a lower inventory impact even as raw material prices fall. The possibility of partial LPG compensation