Avoiding the middle-income trap

Unless substantial reforms are undertaken to improve India's freedom rankings, it may remain stuck within the Upper-Middle-Income range beyond 2030

In 2018, the government set a target of achieving a gross domestic product (GDP) of $5 trillion by 2025. The GDP was then approximately $2.7 trillion, implying a target growth rate of over 9 per cent. The most optimistic guesses for India’s GDP circa March 2024 are around $4.1 trillion, with the $5 trillion mark looking likely to be crossed circa 2027.

The World Bank assessed GDP at around $3.4 trillion in 2022, and some estimates indicate the 2024 GDP is closer to $3.9 trillion. This looks reasonable with a growth rate of about 7 per cent ($4.1 trillion would