It’s that time of the year. India’s 2025-26 (FY26) Budget will be presented on February 1, followed closely by the Reserve Bank of India’s policy meeting on February 7. Policymakers are facing a particularly complex environment. It’s no small ask to restart the public capex cycle, boost consumer demand, and press ahead with fiscal consolidation, all while domestic growth is soft, tax revenue growth is slowing, and the overseas environment is uncertain.
Let’s start with the global backdrop. Sure, US yields may soften if the Fed cuts in 2025, but the dollar could remain strong as it typically benefits not
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