Have realistic expectations from your investments

An investment's six-month performance is akin to data shown on TV during a match - useful to know which way the match is going, not select a batsman

Kirti, a selector, wants to make money by backing a batsman based on his long-term performance. After scrutinising the statistics of several batsmen over a hundred matches, he decides on one. However, he gets upset when his chosen player doesn’t perform well in the next match, and in fact the entire series. He overlooks the fact that the other batsmen have fared equally poorly.
 

Despite the chosen batsman still having the best average performance over a hundred matches, Kirti’s disappointment doesn’t abate. He unrealistically expects the batsman he has backed to perform well every time, forgetting his initial strategy of