'It's foreign policy, stupid'

How elections might be won -- or lost -- in 2024

It may be hard for us to remember, but five years ago at this point it was far from certain that Prime Minister Narendra Modi would be re-elected with an increased majority. If anything, the conversation, including within the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), was about how a coalition could be managed if the party dipped below 272. Every single opinion poll conducted in December of 2018 and January of 2019 suggested, in fact, that the National Democratic Alliance would itself fall short of a majority, leaving regional parties as kingmakers.

What happened? How did that turn around by end March/April