RBI monetary policy preview: Expecting more nimble and prudent guidance

CPI-based inflation is expected to broadly align near the RBI's projection of 4.5% in 2024-25, despite perishable food price shock due to repeated weather aberrations

A complex global backdrop

Global macro and policy backdrop remains complicated, often driven by idiosyncratic factors. For instance, the US Fed lowered the Fed Funds Rate by 50 basis points (bps) in September, the first rate cut in over four years, amid continued softening in inflation, while US growth and labour market display mixed trends. In contrast, China’s recent large monetary stimulus was triggered by a surge in fears of a major economic downturn, even though it is far from clear whether such stimulus will indeed support the real economy or will end up boosting financial markets only.

Geopolitical