Global trade optimism

Downside risks in 2024 must also be evaluated

The March 2024 edition of the “Global Trade Update” from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) was released last week and made for optimistic reading. While it estimated that global trade had in fact contracted by about $1 trillion during the calendar year 2023, it also argued for a reversal of that trend in 2024. Unctad backed up the claim by saying that the first quarter of this calendar year had seen a “small but positive increase in both goods and services trade”. The drivers for positive growth in trade in the ongoing year include a moderation