For almost a decade, economists have been advising the Government of China to “rebalance” its economy away from investment towards consumption. What can be judged of the Chinese economy suggests either that a process of rebalancing is indeed under way, or that the hazards that rebalancing was meant to avoid have finally caught up. Productivity is undergoing a transition; real estate demand and construction demand have slackened; it looks like household savings will decline and consumption patterns will shift. The purchasing managers’ index (manufacturing) has read below 50 for multiple recent months. The size and power of