Monsoon forecasting: Is it like predicting the unpredictable for IMD?

IMD, the agency mandated with the job of forecasting weather, seems to be going haywire with its predictions. Well to begin with, the Southwest Monsoon has reached almost all parts of the country but has stayed away from parts of north India- like Delhi, Haryana, parts of west Uttar Pradesh and west Rajasthan.

A little less than a month back, IMD had predicted that monsoon is expected to cover these regions by June. but its predictions are yet to come true. To recall, in its forecast on June 13, the IMD had predicted that the Southwest Monsoon will reach Delhi by June 15. However, a day later it said conditions are not favourable for its further advancement in this region.

Experts pointed out some of the major reasons behind IMD's wrong monsoon forecast for parts of north India are wrong signals by models, which in turn creating difficulty in predicting the outcomes of the interactions between the easterly and westerly winds.

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