Market Ahead, April 5: Top factors that could guide markets this week

After two consecutive weeks of decline, markets witnessed a strong rebound and gained over two per cent, in the holiday-shortened week.

This week, the markets are likely to focus on the RBI policy meet outcome, macroeconomic data and development on the Covid front. Global cues are also expected to guide market trajectory. That apart, analysts believe, the markets may see some consolidation ahead of the earnings season which would start from mid-April.

First and foremost, markets could react to the fast-rising Covid cases in the country and especially in Maharashtra, following which the state government there, on Sunday, announced weekend lockdowns and night curfew to control the spread of the virus. India for the first time since the Covid breakout last year recorded over 1 lakh cases on Sunday.

On the back of fast-rising cases in the country, the investor focus will be on the RBI policy meet outcome slated for April 7. Expectations are ripe that the RBI will hold rates and keep stance accommodative, however, commentary on inflation and economic growth outlook will be key.

Moreover, on the macroeconomic front, investors would keep an eye on the Manufacturing PMI data for March that will be released later today, while Markit Composite and Services PMI for March will be announced on Wednesday.

Besides, oil price movement, FII flows and rupee trajectory will also influence the market direction.

Lastly, on the primary market front, an initial public offer (IPO) by Macrotech Developers (formerly known as Lodha Developers) will open for subscription between April 7-9 while the shares of Barbeque Nation Hospitality are expected to list on April 7.

And now, let's take a look at the trade setup for today.

Defying a positive global market sentiment, the domestic markets looked set to start the week on a subdued note, spooked by fast-rising Covid cases in the country. SGX Nifty futures traded 0.50 per cent lower at 14,918 around 7.40 am today.

On the global front, Asia stocks and US futures climbed Monday as investors weighed an unexpectedly strong U.S. jobs report and the sustainability of the latest selloff in bonds.

Japan's Nikkei rose 0.8% while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was almost flat. Australian and Chinese markets were closed.

On the stock-specific front, shares of Tata Motors will be in focus after the company said it has completed the sale of its Defence business to Tata Advanced Systems for an upfront consideration of Rs 227.7 crore.

Britannia Industries declared an interim dividend of Rs 62 per share and the record date for the same has been fixed as April 10, 2021.

Jaiprakash Power Ventures, in line with its endeavour to reduce its debt, has pre-paid its loans amounting to Rs 299.51 crore.

V-Mart Retail has opened six new stores - four in Uttar Pradesh, one in Bihar and one in Rajasthan.

National Fertilisers reported the highest ever total fertiliser sale of 59.36 lakh MT in FY21. Other than fertilisers, the company also saw steep growth in the sale of seeds and agrochemicals.