What will drive RIL's Q3 earnings?

As benchmark indices head lower due to rising global headwinds, stock-specific opportunity amid Q3 results is helping investors trim losses.
So far, the December quarter results have, largely, been positive for the Street with majority of the companies, including Infosys, TCS, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance and Metro Brands posting better-than-expected earnings growth.
 
And now, all eyes will be on the earnings report card of index major Reliance Industries, which is scheduled to report its results, tomorrow.
Global brokerage Morgan Stanley expects the two Rs – Refining and Retail – to drive the earnings in Q3 with demand and margin surprises likely in both these segments.
 
For the quarter, the brokerage projects a 9% quarter-on-quarter earnings growth, driven mostly by improvement in gasoline and diesel margins.
This will be further supported by retail demand in jewellery, electronics and grocery, for which RIL has already reported positive surprises.
 
Overall, the brokerage expects consolidated EBITDA to rise by 8.5% QoQ and 28.5% YoY at Rs 27,722.6 crore.
This would be driven by oil to chemicals EBITDA growth of 10% QoQ; telecom growth of 2% QoQ, and retail growth of 35% YoY.
Back home, analysts at Emkay Global peg EBITDA growth at 37% YoY and 14% QoQ, while net profit is seen at Rs 16,138 crore, up 23% YoY and 18% QoQ.
On a standalone basis, analysts expect RIL’s EBITDA to increase anywhere between 12-15%. Standalone net profit, on the other hand, is seen at Rs 9,906.6 crore, up 13% YoY and over 7% QoQ.

The stock of Mukesh Ambani-led company has advanced over 6% year-to-date on the bourses, and analysts expect it to rise another 17%, up to Rs 2,955 apiece, over the next one year.
This will be triggered by a combination of higher chemical margins, details on the new energy vertical, and new partnerships in key segments.

As regards Thursday’s session, global headwinds and weekly F&O expiry will likely keep the indices choppy through the day.
The frontline Sensex index has tumbled over 1,200 points in 2 days and stands at 60,099 level. The Nifty50, meanwhile, has broken below the 18,000-mark and is at 17,938.
On the earnings front, over 40 companies, including Asian Paints, Bajaj Finserv, Biocon and HUL are scheduled to report their results today.
 
Among the lot, Hindustan Unilever is likely to clock year-on-year revenue growth of 9-12 per cent in on account of price hikes taken in recent quarters. Analysts, however, expect its volume growth to be flat.
Moreover, analysts expect nearly 200 basis points YoY fall in the company’s gross margins due to high commodity inflation.
 
Stock-specific action, initial public offer of AGS Transact Technologies, and news flow around the Omicron variant of Covid-19 will be the other key triggers.

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