BJP, SP make tacit moves on caste chessboard ahead of Uttar Pradesh bypolls

The stage is set for a high-stakes battle in Uttar Pradesh, where the November 13 Assembly bypolls promise a showdown between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP).  Both major players are relying on their strategic playbooks, deploying caste calculations as they vie for control over the nine contested seats.

 

The stakes are clear: Four of these seats were won by the SP in the 2022 state polls -- Sisamau, Katehari, Kundarki, and Karhal; three by the BJP -- Khair, Phulpur, and Ghaziabad Sadar; and one each by BJP allies NISHAD Party and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) -- Manjhwah and Meerapur respectively.

 

 

This bypoll could offer a foreshadowing of the larger battle in 2027 when the state’s Assembly elections will test the state’s political temperature once again.

 

Following the setback in the 2024 Haryana elections, the Congress has withdrawn from the UP bypolls, allowing its INDIA bloc partner SP to take the lead solely.

 

Meanwhile, the BJP has decided to contest all nine seats, though one of its candidates, Mithilesh Pal, will fight the election on RLD symbol.

 

The BJP’s strategy is both calculated and complex; it seeks to reassert dominance after a bruising performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where its UP seat count dropped significantly.

 

The electoral chessboard is taking shape in classic UP style, with caste alliances and community coalitions dictating much of the game plan. The BJP is leaning on Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s theme of “batenge to katenge (divided we fall)” to weave a unifying narrative that transcends caste and communal lines. This catchphrase, a call for Hindu unity, first appeared in Adityanath’s campaign speeches in Haryana and has since spread to other poll-bound states like Maharashtra and Jharkhand.

 

“The BJP is confident of winning all the seats,” UP BJP Secretary Chandra Mohan told Business Standard. He contends the catchphrase has energised the BJP’s voter base around a message of “inclusive development.” To the Opposition’s claims of divisiveness, he counters that it is instead a call for socioeconomic unity.

 

Additionally, the party is touting “good governance and improved law & order” during Adityanath’s rule to win voters.

 

On the other side, the Akhilesh Yadav-led SP is focusing on its PDA (pichhda, dalit, alpsankhyak) formula, an appeal to the backward classes, scheduled castes, and minorities. With a strategic selection of four Muslim, three OBC, and two Dalit candidates across the nine seats, the SP is optimistic, viewing these bypolls as an extension of its recent Lok Sabha gains, which saw its seats in UP rise to 37, even as the BJP’s slipped to 33.

 

The SP’s mission is clear: Woo non-Yadav OBCs and Dalits disenchanted by the Bahujan Samaj Party to build a powerful coalition against the BJP.

 

SP Spokesperson Rajendra Chaudhary voiced the party’s confidence in an electoral upset if the polls proceed “freely and fairly”, attributing widespread dissatisfaction with the BJP’s alleged divisive rhetoric. “The people of UP have made up their mind to support the SP and boot out the ruling BJP,” he declared, adding that Adityanath’s “batenge to katenge” slogan alienates, rather than unites, UP’s diverse population.

 

Not to be outdone, the BJP has responded by fielding a carefully curated caste mix of candidates, including five from the OBC, two Brahmins, one Kshatriya, and one Dalit, forming a coalition meant to appeal broadly to Hindu voters. In a direct challenge to the powerful Yadav clan, the BJP has even fielded Anujesh Yadav — brother-in-law to SP MP Dharmendra Yadav — to contest Tej Pratap Singh Yadav, one of the grandsons of SP founder the late Mulayam Singh Yadav, in Karhal. This choice sets the stage for a gripping family showdown within one of UP’s most influential political dynasties.

 

In the lead-up to the bypolls, Adityanath had earlier instructed senior ministers to engage with voters on the ground, an attempt to bolster local support and address constituency grievances.

 

Meanwhile, Mayawati’s BSP is not standing by idly; it has fielded candidates in all nine constituencies, making the bypolls a three-way race. BSP State President Vishwanath Pal has taken the reins of the campaign, though Akash Anand, Mayawati’s nephew and the BSP’s national coordinator, has been notably absent.