Congress leadership expected losses in Maharashtra but underestimated scale

The Congress was aware that the Maha Vikas Aghadi coalition was struggling to sustain its Lok Sabha gains, as revealed by data from an internal survey presented to the party leadership

After the Maha Vikas Aghadi coalition was routed in the recently concluded Maharashtra Assembly elections, discontent has been rising within the alliance over the possible reasons for the failure. Now, reports have emerged that the Congress leadership had anticipated losing ground to the ruling Mahayuti alliance, based on an internal survey conducted just weeks before the November 20 elections. 

 

Party leaders privy to the findings said the results should not have come as a surprise. According to The Indian Express, the survey revealed that the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) was ahead in only 44 out of the 103 constituencies identified as its strongholds, a decline from the 54 seats it led during the Lok Sabha elections. In contrast, the Mahayuti had increased its lead, going from 49 seats in the Lok Sabha polls to 56 seats in this round.

 

 

The Ladki Bahin Yojana, a key welfare scheme of the Mahayuti, was highlighted as a major factor in the alliance’s resurgence. The survey, which included responses from 57,309 individuals, found that 88 per cent were aware of the scheme, 82 per cent reported having a beneficiary in their family, and 17 per cent said their voting preferences had shifted due to it.

 

Days before the polls, the Congress attempted to woo soybean farmers by promising to set a price of Rs 7,000 per quintal plus bonuses if elected. “We knew that we were dipping. Towards the end, we had a fair idea that they (Mahayuti) were ahead. But the scale of their victory and our defeat did surprise us,” a Congress leader with knowledge of the survey findings told The Indian Express.

 

Congress blames EVM for Maharashtra debacle 

The survey results showed the MVA was ahead only among Muslim voters, while the Mahayuti had recovered ground across other demographics, including General, OBC, SBC, SC, SEBC, and ST categories. Women and young voters were particularly drawn to the Mahayuti, further consolidating its position.

 

Despite these insights, some Congress leaders criticised the party’s leadership for continuing to attribute the loss to Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs). One of the Congress leaders cited by the report stated that the leadership knew that the MVA was struggling to sustain the Lok Sabha gains and the data was before the leadership. “But we are still blaming the EVMs. It is a convenient face-saving explanation for both state and national leaders,” he said.

 

However, the leadership remains focused on pushing for a return to paper ballots. A Congress Working Committee meeting scheduled for Friday is expected to pass a resolution demanding the reinstatement of paper ballots, despite the Supreme Court recently dismissing a plea on the issue.

 

In the final tally announced on November 23, the Congress suffered its worst-ever performance in Maharashtra, winning just 16 seats. The Shiv Sena (UBT) secured 20 seats, and the NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) won 10.