Gold vs silver this Dhanteras: How much should you hold in your portfolio?

As households across India mark Dhanteras on Friday, November 6, with purchases of gold and silver, financial experts are advising investors to look beyond the auspicious occasion and consider the role of precious metals in their overall portfolios. 

After an extraordinary rally followed by sharp corrections in 2026, the question is no longer simply whether to buy gold or silver, but how much to own, when to enter and whether the two metals deserve equal space in an investment portfolio.

The broader advice is to treat gold as a portfolio hedge rather than a short-term bet, avoid investing a lump sum merely because it is Dhanteras, and exercise greater caution with silver, which is more volatile and exposed to industrial demand.

Vikas Gupta, CEO and strategist at OmniScience Capital, distinguishes between two kinds of precious-metal demand in India: purchases driven by cultural occasions and weddings, and investment demand influenced by price movements.

 “In India there are two kinds of demand for gold and silver. One is the inelastic demand which happens on Dhanteras and other festivals, as well as, for the wedding season primarily. There is a certain minimum amount of gold to be bought, depending on the socio-economic and cultural groups, for a wedding. Two is the elastic demand which is related to the price action and speculation as to where the price is going,” he said.

Gupta expects Dhanteras buying volumes to be flat to higher, while wedding-season demand could be slightly stronger. He said the sharp rise in gold prices followed by a correction may make buyers feel that they can afford more gold for the same amount of money when comparing current prices with the earlier peak. “Gold as an investment continues being favoured by Indians,” he added.

For investors, however, festival buying should not automatically translate into a higher allocation to precious metals. ""An allocation of about 5-10% of the overall portfolio to gold and 2-3% to silver suits most investors. Silver is more volatile and also depends on industrial demand, so it should stay the smaller part. Both metals have run up sharply over the past year, so the question is less whether to buy than how. Rather than buying in one lump on Dhanteras, investors can stagger purchases over a few weeks through gold ETFs or coins, and add on dips to average the entry price. Those already at their target share need not add, and those below it can build the position in tranches," said  Ashish Rajodiya, Head of Commodities, PL Capital.

Investors who are below their desired allocation can consider building exposure in tranches rather than making a large purchase on Dhanteras. Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) offer one route to financial exposure, while coins and bars provide physical ownership. Those who already have the desired allocation need not buy more simply because it is an auspicious day.

The sharp volatility in silver calls for particular caution. Prasenjit Paul, fund manager at 129 Wealth and research analyst at Paul Asset, said the recent recovery in silver prices should not be mistaken for the beginning of a fresh bull market. “Silver is still in a broader downtrend; the recent recovery looks more like a technical bounce after prices entered an oversold zone. Such rebounds are normal after a sharp fall and do not mean a fresh bull run has started,” he said.

Paul pointed to the metal's 18.6 per cent global decline during October as evidence of how quickly sentiment can reverse after a steep rally. “We remain bearish on silver in the near term and would not recommend chasing the present rebound,” he said. Those with a genuine future requirement for jewellery or gifting may buy gradually during larger declines, but investors deploying fresh money could wait for greater price stability, he added.

The outlook for silver is also linked to global interest-rate expectations, the US dollar and industrial demand. A stronger dollar and higher US Treasury yields generally weigh on silver because the metal does not generate income. While demand from solar panels, electric vehicles, electronics and data centres provides longer-term support, Paul cited expectations of a decline in industrial fabrication in 2026, partly due to lower silver usage in solar panels.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services, meanwhile, maintains a constructive long-term view on precious metals despite near-term volatility. Its latest Precious Metals Quarterly report, titled 'Gold's Rally: Deferred, Not Derailed', says corrections could offer opportunities for disciplined accumulation. The report notes that gold touched nearly $5,600 per ounce in January 2026 before falling below $4,000 and subsequently recovering. Silver had rallied above $100 per ounce before undergoing a sharper correction.

Navneet Damani, head of research – commodities at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said gold continues to serve as a defensive asset amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainty. However, its near-term direction will remain sensitive to US Federal Reserve policy, inflation, the dollar and real bond yields. “In India, elevated prices have moderated discretionary jewellery demand, although wedding-related purchases and investment demand have remained relatively resilient,” he said.

The brokerage recommends a buy-on-dips approach to gold, with an international accumulation zone of $3,800-3,900 per ounce, a short-term target of $4,200 and a medium-term target of $4,500-4,700. In the domestic market, assuming a dollar-rupee exchange rate of 96, it sees Rs 1,35,000 per 10 grams as a favourable accumulation zone, with a short-term target of Rs 1,48,000 and a medium-term target of Rs 1,60,000-1,68,000.

These are the brokerage's market estimates, not assured price levels or guaranteed returns. Investors should also account for currency movements, taxes, making charges and the difference between physical gold prices and financial products when evaluating their returns.

Manav Modi, commodities analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said silver could offer greater upside potential than gold but comes with significantly higher volatility. The firm's broader view is that investors should accumulate during corrections rather than chase price momentum.

" The next turning point for gold could emerge when real yields stop rising, particularly if persistent inflation, fiscal concerns or slowing economic growth begin to alter the monetary policy outlook. We continue to maintain a buy-on-dips approach towards gold, with an accumulation zone of $3,800–$3,900 per ounce, a short-term target of $4,200 and a medium-term target of $4,500–$4,700. In the domestic market, assuming USD/INR at 96, we see ₹1,35,000 as a favourable accumulation zone, with a short-term target of ₹1,48,000 and a medium-term target of ₹1,60,000–₹1,68,000. Silver offers greater upside leverage, but investors should remain mindful of its significantly higher volatility. Overall, rather than chasing price momentum, we believe investors should focus on disciplined accumulation during corrections, keeping in mind the role of precious metals in wealth preservation and portfolio diversification," said Modi.

 Motilal Oswal said that global gold ETF holdings rose by approximately 187 tonnes in August and September 2026 to a record 4,256 tonnes. Third-quarter inflows reached a record $31 billion. In India, gold ETF inflows rose 71 per cent month-on-month to Rs 44.5 billion in September, while silver ETFs attracted inflows of Rs 19.7 billion.

"Against this backdrop, gold continues to maintain its appeal as a relatively defensive asset, while silver offers greater upside potential but carries a higher degree of volatility. As global macroeconomic conditions, monetary policy expectations and geopolitical developments continue to shape the precious metals market, investors may consider a disciplined accumulation strategy during price corrections rather than chasing short-term momentum," said the brokerage in a note.