An upward trajectory: In absence of black swans, markets may rise further

The long-term trend may suggest a reversal if Nifty50 falls below 20,000

Since March 2020, when the Nifty50 plummeted to 7,511 following the announcement of a nationwide lockdown, the stock market has been on an upward trajectory. Over the next four years, the major market index has delivered a remarkable compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 31.5 per cent. In the past year alone, the Nifty50 has gained by 27 per cent, hitting a succession of record highs.

During this period, the benchmark largecap index has been outperformed by indices tracking smaller stocks. Over the past year, the Nifty Midcap 50 index has risen by 60.7 per cent, the Nifty Smallcap